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Thursday, February 3, 2011

Moseby V. Snider (aka. A Little Patience)

This might be a little more disjointed than usual.  I’m sure you’re thinking that isn’t possible, but I’m willing to gamble that it is.  This started as a profile / review of Lloyd Moseby.  In the name of all things holy, why would somebody do that?  Mostly because he’s a “glory day” guy for me, not because he did anything particularly great. 

When I got into the research, I realized that there were some similarities between Moseby and Travis Snider.  The biggest difference between the two are the games played in their first three years.  Moseby played 361 to Snider’s 173.  Beyond that, Moseby’s numbers over 3 years were .235, 27 Home Runs, 141 RBI, 131 runs weren’t terribly dissimilar from Snider’s .255, 25 Home Runs, 74 RBI, 79 runs. 

Lately, the talk about Snider from fans and some media members is that he’s a prospect who hasn’t panned out.  In all honesty Snider kind of strikes me as a bit of a punk-ass kid.  It doesn’t seem that he’s particularly grateful for where he is, like Aaron Hill for instance.  He shares a birthday with my daughter (Feb 2) and he’ll turn 23.  Interesting that they both seem kind of stubborn.  I find that the prevailing thought of “it isn’t going to happen” for Snider disturbing for a few reasons.  1.  He’s 23.  2. His numbers look eerily familiar.  3. If you carve his numbers a little differently they’re pretty good. 

1.       23 years old is way too early to judge.  He was 20 years old when he first hit the majors.  So was Moseby.  Also on age, there were only 3 players in all of baseball who were younger than him and played more games last year and currently, he has more career games than anyone his age or younger.  
2.       His first two years (not counting when he was 20 and played a hand full of games) saw .241, 9 HRs, 29 RBI and .255, 14 HRs and 32 RBI. 
3.       If you look at his numbers divide them by games played and multiply by 162 (games in a season) he would project to a .255 average with 22 home runs and 66 RBI and 70 runs scored over a full season.  Don’t know about you, but I’d take that.       

So here is the story of Lloyd Moseby, the player who started a lot like Snider, looked to be on the brink of not making it at all, and persevered. 

In the Jays first championship year of 1985, the opening day roster was:

C             Buck Martinez
1B           Willie Upshaw
2B           Damaso Garcia
SS           Tony Fernandez
3B           Garth Iorg
LF            George Bell
CF           Lloyd Moseby
RF           Jesse Barfield
P             Luis Leal

Buck Martinez and Garth Iorg played in a strict platoon with Ernie Whitt and Rance Mulliniks; it just so happens that they were going against a lefty on opening day.  Of the ‘regulars’, Garcia and Moseby had the longest tenure with the team having arrived to stay in 1980. 

Garcia’s impact had been felt immediately.  He finished 4th in the rookie of the year voting in the Joe Charboneau year.    In the shortened strike year of 1981 he was injured and didn’t have much of a body of work, but in 1982 he bounced right back and won a Silver Slugger as the best hitting second baseman in the American League.  Not bad for your second full season in The Show.  Robbie Alomar is the best player to have played second base in Toronto but Damaso was our first real star at that position.  And make no mistake, he was a star!

And while Garcia was receiving accolades and staring in CIBC commercials, Moseby trudged unspectacularly along.  He hit a Gwyneth Paltry .229 in 1980 with 9 home runs and 46 RBI.   In 1981, .233 with 9 home runs and 43 RBI.  In 1982, Garcia’s Silver Slugger year, he would hit .236 with 9 home runs and 52 RBI. 

Three full years and it looked like you knew what you were getting at this point.  His strikeout to walk ratio was 3 to 1 – the wrong way.  For a guy with wheels he only had 26 stolen bases over three years, mind you, he was hardly on base enough to be a threat.  Through it all, his defence was “ok”.  Certainly not noteworthy and barely above average, if that.  Toronto was a 78 win team in 1982 , their highest win total by 11 games!  They seemed headed in the right direction with a very dependable rotation (Stieb, Clancy, Leal) an award winning middle infield (Griffin & Garcia), reliable catching (Whitt & Martinez), steady corners infielders (Iorg, Mulliniks, Upshaw)  and emerging corner outfielders (Bonnell and Barfield). 

What didn’t look good was Centerfield. 

In today’s era of baseball, Moseby’s 1983 season would have sparked the debate of effective drug testing.  1983 moved Moseby from ‘never will be’ to ‘can’t miss’.  In truth, neither label was correct. 

On opening day of 1983, the Jays played in Boston winning 7-1.  Moseby was in Center and went 1 for 4.  Nothing special.  He was kept out the line up in game two of the series but came off the bench to pinch hit late.  He was hitting .200 with 2 strikeouts after two games.  Then in New York he only got 3 at bats and a single hit when the Jays split two games with the Yankees.  That was followed with a 2 for 4 performance over 3 games against the Brewers.

The Jays would host New York for a three game series and Moseby was being coming less and less of a factor with Bonnell getting most of the starts in Center and Lloyd being called on to pinch hit or run late in games.  He was 1 for 4 in the three games and the Jays hosted Cleveland with a 4-6 record and no significant offensive contributions from the Centerfield spot. 

And this is the day that the light went on for Lloyd Moseby.  He was 4 for 5 in the game with 4 runs scored, 4 RBI and two home runs.  The Jays were trailing the game 7-5 heading into the bottom of the 9th.   Statistically, the probability of a Blue Jays win was about 9%.  The inning started with Dave Collins grounding out.  The chances of a win were now 4%. 

Damaso Garcia then singles through the box and stole second base on an 1 ball, no strike pitch to Barfield.  Barfield would then strike out.  Next up was Cliff Johnson who hit a two out, bottom of the night home run to Left Center to tie the game.  He was followed by Buck Martinez who singled to left.  Moseby came to the plate and hit the Blue Jays second 2-out 2-run homerun in the bottom of the ninth of the same game!  This one was for the win. 

Moseby seemed to take off from there.  Going into ’83 Moseby had a lifetime .239 average.  He would end up hitting .315 – an amazing 76 points over his career average!

Lloyd Moseby’s line for 1983 was .315 average, his home runs doubled to 18, RBIs soared to 81, he would score 100+ runs for the first time with 104, hit 31 doubles, 7 triples and steal 27 bases!  He was the American League’s Silver Slugger winner for Center Fielders. 

Interestingly, after hitting 9 home runs in each of his first three season, he would 18 in each of the next three.  I remember thinking that he was due to hit 27 in 1986.  He got 21 that year and followed with 26 the next year before his numbers started to decline.  If it weren’t for Jose Bautista, Moseby’s 1983 season would have been the best break out year ever for a Jay. 

Also interesting is how 1983 was both a change and an aberration of Moseby.  He did transition to more a legit power threat in that year.  But that being said, he would never have 100 RBI in his career.  It could be said that he hit too high in the order to drive in a lot of runs, but he never again scored 100 runs either and he was on some pretty decent offensive teams.  His .315 average would be his best ever and not by a little.  .315 would wind up being 33 points over his next best year!  Another transition was his walks.  The vulnerability to the high hard ones never went away, but his walks per year moved from the mid 30’s to the mid 70’s.  While it didn’t offset his career average of 116 strikeouts a season, it was appreciably better. 

The improved on base average translated to a much improved running game.  After 26 stolen bases in his first 3 years combined he had 27 in 1983.  He followed that with years of 39, 37, 32, 39 and 31 before he started to slow a little. 

He was one of those true hybrid players. Typically you were a power hitter, an average hitter or a defensive player with limited offensive skills.  What was odd about him was that he had aspects of all these attributes that he did exceedingly well but didn’t necessarily completely excel in any.  

Anyway, nice player once he figured out who was. 

With respect to Snider, patience is king.  The Jays are not winning the World Series in 2011 regardless of Travis Snider does.  The kid makes the major league minimum.  He isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2013 and can’t become a free agent before 2016.  Play him!  That’s probably the most frustrating part of his development.  Even though he’s been in the majors for the better part of 3 years, he only has barely over a season worth of games under his belt.   Be patient but I think the second half of this season will show you what you really have.

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