Let's keep this brief before you all rip apart this week's BLOG.
- Another reason to dig AA. He got the Bautista deal done before the BLOG deadline to go to (virtual) print!
- So, Bautista signs (unofficially) for 65 million over 5 years. Here is what I have to say: It ain't my money, if they think that's what he's worth - GREAT! However, don't ever cry poor. I'm completely okay with this deal.
- What CBS Sports had to say: "Anthopoulous has proven deserving of some rope after the brilliant moves he's made so far as GM. Clearly, AA believes Bautista's transformation is for real. If it is, Anthopoulous did a brilliant job of locking up Bautista before his price went up further and hitting free agency, which would only complicate matters."
- How do you not LOVE Albert Pujols as a ball player? In 10 seasons he's averaged 156 games, 43 doubles, 41 homers, 123 RBI, 119 runs, 8 steals, 95 walks, .331 avg, .426 oba, 24 Intentional walks, etc, etc, etc. Anyone would take these numbers as the best year of their career; let alone the average of their average over 10 years. If I were the owner of the Cardinals, I think I would open contract negotiations but saying, "howdy partner". Back up the brinks truck.
- The Jays signed Scott Podsednik to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He was second to Dontrelle Willis (remember him?) in rookie of the year voting in 2001 and was an all star in 2005. A .279 career hitter with single digit home run power but has had 30 or more steals six times. Look for him to make the club as the John MacDonald of the outfield. Expect late inning pinch running and more stolen bases this year.
- The Jays had 26 games lost by relievers last year.
Marcum was better than you may have thought
I’ve had a whole week to do this and I can’t find a silver lining to save me life. I know...I’m usually the optimist when it comes to baseball and particularly the Jays. But so help me...
It’s the scary part. The starting pitching.
Again, I know, I know, everyone is really high on the potential of the Jays pitching because there is a surplus of great young starters. Well, ask Jesse Litsch or Dustin McGowan how many wins potential gets you? The part about the starters being great is way too premature. The part about them being young is way too accurate.
Much as I did with the hitters, I’m going to go through the starters with a prediction of what to reasonably expect and a high end if things go really well. Many of you won’t like it. God I hope I’m wrong.
Just a word on the starters as a whole. After Romero (28 wins), Cecil (22 wins) and Morrow (18 wins), who the hell else is starting? My ‘guess’ would be two of McGowan (20 wins) Rzepczynski (9 wins), Scott Richmond (9 wins), David Purcey (5 wins), Brad Mills (1 win) and Kyle Drabek (0 Wins). Just to clarify, the win totals quoted are career wins...not single season. My personal opinion is that there is neither enough lightening nor bottles to make this work.
Maybe I’m not being clear enough. I think this staff is a train wreck. Oh....My....God. The Birds nine potential starters have 112 career wins. C.C. Sabathia has 157. Tim Wakefield has 197. John Lackey has 116. Josh Beckett has 112. Javier Vasquez has 152. Kevin Millwood has 159. Those are pitchers IN THEIR OWN DIVISION that have more wins than the Jays entire ‘nine-man rotation.’
I’m not saying the season is over before it starts. Hell, I’m sure bookies took bets on the Christians occasionally in Rome. But you know what? Even though the Christians were super motivated, backs against the wall, playing like there was no-tomorrow, playing for the lives...blah...blah...blah; the lions had a certain ‘hunger’ that comes with experience that is difficult to overcome.
This is the bizarro Phillies rotation. If there was one 35 year old .500 pitcher who knew how to work out of jams and keep base runners close, I’d feel better. Not win the division better; but better nonetheless.
Did I mention that only one Jay pitched 200 innings last year? That was Romero with 210. Did I mention that only 2 starters managed to get in 30 games last year? One was Romero and the other is now in Milwaukee. Did you know that Shaun Marcum (Milwaukee) had the highest percentage of quality starts on the team last year? Did you know that the Jays were below the league average in innings pitched per start? Did you know that Brandon Morrow pitched (statistically) the 4th best game EVER in the history of baseball on August 8th last year? Did you know that he also has a losing record for his career and has never had a start in his career in which he didn’t give up at least one walk. Did you know that Achilles was actually a pitcher for the Jays?
Oh, by the way...these predictions assume 35 starts which ain’t gonna happen either.
Let’s get at it:
Ricky Romero
I think he’s good. He was 13-9 two years ago and was 14-9 last year. He is among the best fielding pitchers in baseball...probably in the top three in that category. But that’s kind of like being a great running catcher; who cares. There is nothing to be down on with Romero. If he was the second man in the rotation for the Yankees or Boston, I could see him winning 18. But he’s not. He’s Toronto’s number one starter, which means he’ll see everyone elses number one pitcher pretty consistently. I don’t think he’ll take a step back this year, but his numbers will because his team will have a hard time scoring against the league’s elite pitchers. Lions 1, Christians 0.PREDICTION: Record; 13-11, ERA; 3.99 K’s; 175, BB; 100, Innings Pitched; 200
TOP: Record; 15-10, ERA; 3.75 K’s; 200, BB; 90, Innings Pitched; 225.
Brett Cecil
I’m stretching folks. Cecil has won 17 of his last 25 decisions. This is rough. That is actually a really cool stat if your Greg Maddux, but when your major league legacy is 33 career starts; it’s not a trend, it just a number. A good number, but nothing more. Of all the Jays starters I think I have more faith and hope with him. There is a little bit of Jimmy Key in this guy. He doesn’t seem to rattle. That’s good. He strikes out twice as many as he walks. He has some mojo and wins in bunches. Lions 1, Christians 1.
PREDICTION: Record; 16-8, ERA; 4.25 K’s; 125, BB; 60, Innings Pitched; 200.
TOP: Record; 17-7 ERA; 3.90 K’s; 150, BB; 70, Innings Pitched; 225.
Brandon Morrow
Welcome to the duplicity that is baseball. Brandon Morrow, meet A.J. Burnett. Or maybe Todd Stottlemyre. Yes that seems a little harsh, but that’s what I see. Again, I’d like nothing more than to be wrong. The reality, is that this guy has the most potential of any pitcher on the team. The truth is that potential is almost never realized and even if this guy does get to be good, people will likely be disappointed that he’s not great. There is a long list of million dollar arms and five cent heads. I’m not saying he’s a problem child, just that its highly unlikely that this team will develop 3 or more number one starters and my money is on Morrow being a 3-4 guy which puts him averaging out around 12 wins when he hits his stride. Lions 2, Christians 1.PREDICTION: Record 9-7; ERA 4.25; K’s 180; BB 80; Innings Pitched 200.
TOP: Record; 12-6 ERA; 4.00 K’s; 200, BB; 70, Innings Pitched; 225.
Dustin McGowan
I love comebacks. However, can everyone stop talking like we’re waiting for Nolan Ryan to come off the Disabled list? Dustin, god love him, has a 20-22 career record with a 4.71 career ERA. Less than half of his career starts (27 of his 56 starts) were quality which is defined as working 6 or more innings and yielding 3 or fewer runs. For the record, if you give up 3 runs and work 6 innings every single game you have a 4.50 ERA, how exactly is that ‘quality’ anyway? Anyway, if by some quirky miracle he comes back healthy, Dustin McGowan will not be your second coming. Unless of course you were waiting for the second coming of a terribly average and highly injury prone pitcher. Lions 3, Christians 1.
PREDICTION: Record 5-6; ERA 4.75; K’s 150; BB 65; Innings Pitched 150.
TOP: Record 10-10; ERA 4.25; K’s 175; BB 80; Innings Pitched 180.
Marc Rzepczynski
Wow. Career 9-11 record with a 4.32 ERA. 7-5 at triple A with a 5.29 ERA, 7-5 at double A with a nice 2.93 ERA. There is nothing statistically that would indicate he's on the verge of "lighting it up". Lions 4, Christians 1.
PREDICTION: Record 6-8; ERA 4.32; K’s 70; BB 35; Innings Pitched 100.
TOP: Record 9-11; ERA 4.00; K’s 100; BB 50; Innings Pitched 150.
Scott Richmond
Maybe I cheer a little harder for him because he’s Canadian. Believe it or not, I think this team needs more Scott Richmond type pitchers. A little older, a little wiser. Sadly though, no better. 9-11 with a 5.27 ERA for his career. Lions 5, Christians 1.
PREDICTION: Record 9-11; ERA 5.27; K’s 139; BB 55; Innings Pitched 138.
TOP: Record 10-11; ERA 5.26; K’s 140; BB 56; Innings Pitched 139.
David Purcey
I had Purcey tabbed to be the closer this year. So much for that, the Jays chose four other guys for that role! What was I thinking???? Oh yeah, this is what I was thinking. In 33 games as a reliever in The Show he’s 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA giving up 26 hits in 34 innings. Not Mariano Rivera, but pretty good. In 21 Major League starts he is 4-9 with a 5.74 ERA and allowing 121 hits in 113 innings. Is it me? This guy ain’t a starter; at least not yet. Lions 6, Christians 1.
PREDICTION: Record 4-9; ERA 5.70; K’s 120; BB 85; Innings Pitched 120.
TOP: Record 5-11; ERA 5.50; K’s 140; BB 85; Innings Pitched 140.
Brad Mills
1-1 with a career 7.80 ERA. 10-14 at triple A with a 4.78 ERA. Done. Lions 7, Christians 1.
PREDICTION: Record 1-1; ERA 7.80; K’s 10; BB 10; Innings Pitched 22.
TOP: Record 2-2; ERA 7.00; K’s 20; BB 20; Innings Pitched 44.
Kyle Drabek
Right. PLEASE don’t wreck this kid by starting until the rotation has stabilized! That won’t happen, but if it does all there is to go on is a career 0-3 record with a 4.76 ERA. His most recent two years in the minors had promising records of 14-9 and 12-3, and ERAs of 2.94 and 3.19. That’s great for minor ball. Its actually great at any level of ball. He’s worked over 400 minor league innings but hasn’t thrown a single pitch at triple A. My gut (which is ample) says he’s going to be good, but not ready for prime time.PREDICTION: Record 4-9; ERA 5.27; K’s 110; BB 60; Innings Pitched 125.
TOP: Record 5-11; ERA 5.00; K’s 110; BB 60; Innings Pitched 130.
I'd much rather be having that discussion.
No comments:
Post a Comment