Before I get to this weeks spectacular BLOG, I just wanted to hit on a few quick items.
1. Reports are out that the Jays are trying to unload Juan Rivera (link). I don't buy it. The Jays do not need to get cheaper at this point. They've recovered Vernon's offence and defence, granted it took two people to do it, but a trade of Rivera would really surprise me. Besides the 'source' is Ken Rosenthal who is wrong about half the time. I like his analysis generally, but this seems off the mark. If I'm wrong, well....its in print.
2. Woodie Fryman died this week. Woodie had a long but not particularly spectacular major league career. He was 140-150ish in his career. But Woodie flirted with greatness. Leading the AL in ERA in 1972 with the Tigers. As a rookie with Pittsburgh, he gave up a leadoff single, picked off the guy trying to steal and then set down the next 26 in order. He was that kind of guy, but always seemed to be on the wrong team at the wrong time. By the way, I'm not to fond of players I grew up watching dying of natural causes.
3. Albert Pujols; Babe Ruth - Discuss.
4. This will be Chipper Jones' 18th year of Major League Baseball. It will be his first without Bobby Cox as his manager.
5. There are rumours that the Jays are either going to strike a deal or wait for waivers on Justin Ruggiano a career minor leaguer from Tampa. Don't get excited. Does anyone remember Turner Ward? Fans clamouring for him to play everyday because of his "heart" and "hustle" and the Jays FINALLY put him on unrecallable waivers and he was picked up by Milwaulkee. In his parts of 12 seasons he would hit .251 with 39 career homeruns and 33 career stolen bases. He scored 50 runs once, he never had 50 RBI. Ruggiano is Turner Ward and is not an upgrade from Rivera, Snider or Davis. In fact, I'd take Scott Peters.
6. The statue of Cubs legendary broadcaster, Harry Caray, was vandalized (link). Apprently someone wrote, "thle Cubbieth thstink".
7. Jose Bautista's agents name is Bean Stringfellow. Swear to God! (link)
8. Lastly, here is why I have unlimited respect for double AA. When Alex Anthopolous was asked why Gaston kept playing John Buck last September and left Arencibia on seemingly rot on the bench, he had this to say, "When John Buck was signed to a one-year deal, the promise was made to him that he was going to be an everyday player from start to finish," Anthopoulos said. "When we were competing to sign him, there were a few other teams that wanted to sign him. That was really what separated us from some of the other teams. When we give our word to someone ... that's part of our brand," Anthopoulos said. "When I'm negotiating with an agent or I'm trying to recruit a player, and we have to tell them something, whether it's good or bad news, they know that we're going to honor our word and we're going to be straight shooters. People in the game are starting to realize that the way the Toronto Blue Jays operate, they're men of their word and they keep to their commitment."
BLOG Time!
Jays open the 2011 season in Baltimore's Camden Yards
Opening day. I can’t wait!
There’s nothing like being tied for first place with only positive expectations and optimism as far as you can see. Sometimes the optimism lasts for six months. Sometimes its six weeks. Sometimes 6 days. Sometimes its less than six hours when a Mike Timlin fastball gets rocked out of the park in extra innings. The great thing about baseball is that you never really know.
So, as the pitchers and catchers begin to trickle in to spring training, let us turn our thoughts toward expectations. what are ‘reasonable’ expectations for the Jays this year? Further, what are the potential bright lights that could have career years? I’ve put together what I think is 'fair' to expect in the PREDICTION line and what 'could' happen if everything were to go right for the player on the TOP line.
Keep in mind that the experts at CBSsports, who I think are generally pretty good, have graded the Blue Jays off season maneuvers as an A-minus. Nice. They also predict that the Jays are likely to come in somewhere in the neighbourhood of 81-85 wins, with an eye to breaking the 90 win barrier in 2012. Now that would be really nice!
How many more weeks of winter did the damned gopher predict?
I also tried to determine whether a player had already had his career year or not. We generally think of players building on previous years, but realistically - does anyone expect Bautista to hit 75 bombs this year? Your career year still counts, but needs to be rationalized.
The "if everything goes perfect" component counts on the player attaining the numbers in the first prediction plus being aided by the players around him. For example, Ichiro has had 225 and 214 hits leading off for Seattle over the last two years. He was easily (subjective, I guess) the best lead off hitter in the game, yet he hasn't even scored 90 runs in either of the last two years. If any of the 2, 3 or 4 hitters have a good season he scores 100 easy. If two of them have good years he has 120. So this isn't only about the individuals capabilities, its influenced by those around him too.
Keep in mind that the experts at CBSsports, who I think are generally pretty good, have graded the Blue Jays off season maneuvers as an A-minus. Nice. They also predict that the Jays are likely to come in somewhere in the neighbourhood of 81-85 wins, with an eye to breaking the 90 win barrier in 2012. Now that would be really nice!
How many more weeks of winter did the damned gopher predict?
Punxsutawney Phil & Rod Sell (not Brian Dennehy)
Just a little on how I arrived at these numbers. For the reasonable expectations, I tried to look at a combination of the 162 game average and seasonal average. 162 game averages are always better than seasonal averages; however, players not named Ripken or Gehrig can't be guaranteed to play every day, so I would lean a little more to the seasonal average. For players with less than 5 years in The Show, I looked for trends in their minor league numbers. For example, a player with 40+ doubles but less than 10 homers in the minors over multiple years, is likely to still be growing into his power. Hitting gaps with authority but not quite clearing walls. You can make some power assumptions based on that. There are other more boring trends which I'll save for when it gets colder again.
I also tried to determine whether a player had already had his career year or not. We generally think of players building on previous years, but realistically - does anyone expect Bautista to hit 75 bombs this year? Your career year still counts, but needs to be rationalized.
The "if everything goes perfect" component counts on the player attaining the numbers in the first prediction plus being aided by the players around him. For example, Ichiro has had 225 and 214 hits leading off for Seattle over the last two years. He was easily (subjective, I guess) the best lead off hitter in the game, yet he hasn't even scored 90 runs in either of the last two years. If any of the 2, 3 or 4 hitters have a good season he scores 100 easy. If two of them have good years he has 120. So this isn't only about the individuals capabilities, its influenced by those around him too.
This week’s view is of the starting line up (as I see it) and next week’s will be of the pitchers.
Left Field – Travis Snider
Travis is a tough one to project because he hasn’t played a full season yet. Also, his time in the The Show is not really representative of how his numbers look in the minors. In the minors his on base average is .376 in the majors he’s .318. Its a little odd that his power numbers have shown up with the big club but not his average or plate discipline. Playing every day will help. I did like Cito Gaston, but I think Snider will benefit most from the Managerial change. Getting 500+ at bats will really help with plate coverage and pitch recognition. PREDICTION: Average .255, HR 22, RBI 75, RUNS 75, SB 3.
TOP: Average .280, HR 30, RBI, 85, RUNS 85, SB 10.
Center Field – Rajai Davis
Does anyone remember Mike Cameron? He replaced Ken Griffey Jr in CF for Seattle. He was no Ken Griffey. But he did end up making them forget about Griffey’s defensive contributions which were not insignificant. I believe the same will be true for Davis in CF for the Jays. People want to believe that Wells was a superior defensive talent. They’ll find out this year. Offensively he's not Wells. But he's not an Otis Nixon slap hitter either. His career batting average and on base percentage are both .001 higher than Wells'; but he brings virtually no power. He's a completely different player and in this case, different is definitely good! Also, he wears high socks. I dig high socks. Players who have their pants to their heels (Wells', ManRam, etc) look lazy. Jim Thome doesn't look lazy even though he's slower and and not as good. Davis won't look lazy & he's good. People might fall in love with him like they did with Mookie. PREDICTION: Average .280, HR 4, RBI 30, RUNS 80, SB, 40.
TOP: Average .280, HR 4, RBI, 40, RUNS 110, SB 60.
Right Field – Juan Rivera
So he’s no Rajai Davis defensively. But he’s no George Bell either. Rivera is steady if unspectacular on defence. However, he will almost entirely replace Wells from an offensive stand point, with the only exception being speed. I know people have trouble believing that, but their numbers are virtually identical. On the speed question, I remain unconvinced that Wells’ speed had ever really been utilized to its potential. This outfield feels very 'mid-eightys' to me. Speedy center fielder with limited power and bombers on the corners with more limited defense. PREDICTION: Average .280, HR 22, RBI 85, RUNS 65, SB 2.
TOP: Average .280, HR 30, RBI, 100, RUNS 75, SB 2.
Third Base – Jose Bautista
16, 14, 23 and 21 errors at 3rd base over the last four seasons for Encarnacion. That's a total of 74 if you're scoring at home. People sitting on the first base line can be a little less worried when there are ground balls to third this year. The defensive upgrade will be palpable. If you are one of those people that thought that Bautista had a great year last year, but don’t know how significant it was to the team overall, consider this: When Jose played 3rd base he was .281 hitter compared to a .250 hitter when playing the outfield. In the Jays 85 wins he hit .303 with 37 home runs. In their 77 loses he was .212 with 17 home runs. As goes Jose, so go the Blue Jays. He’ll be hitting cleanup all year and playing 3rd, both changes benefit him.
PREDICTION: Average .255, HR 35, RBI 100, RUNS 90, SB 5, All Star
TOP: Average .270, HR 54, RBI, 124, RUNS 109, SB 10, All Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, MVP, Pope, Head of the TTC.
Short Stop – Yunel Escobar
I think this kid is ridiculously good. There could be the “million dollar arm and 5 cent head” factor here, but I doubt it’s a serious issue. The Jays as an organization typically don't languish with that character flaw for too long (eg. Raul Mondesi). The worst thing that I could find about Escobar is that he grounds into too many double plays. Otherwise he’s real good offensively and real good defensively. That’s kind of the package, right? CBSSports ranks him as the 9th best short stop out of the 30 teams. PREDICTION: Average .290, HR 10, RBI 55, RUNS 90, SB 5.
TOP: Average .310, HR 10, RBI, 70, RUNS 100, SB 10, All Star
Second Base – Aaron Hill
In 2009 Aaron Hill led the league in plate appearances and at bats. He finished just behind A-Rod and Ichiro in MVP voting. He was an All Star and won a Silver Slugger. He headed into spring training last year aiming to improve. In 48 spring at bats he hit .417 with an OBA of .517. He had 11 walks and only 5 strikeouts. He also had 6 home runs in 18 spring games to go with his gaudy average. Then he got hurt on opening day and missed about two weeks. He never really got his rhythm back. But I do believe that he will find his groove this spring and be back to his ‘normal’ self. CBSSports has Hill ranked 9th among the 30 starting second basemen, and that's after last years disappointing season. Better than average offense. At least average and probably above average and reliable defense. PREDICTION: Average .285, HR 20, RBI 80, RUNS 90, SB 5.
TOP: Average .310, HR 30, RBI, 110, RUNS 115, SB 11, All Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, Come back Player of the Year
First Base – Edwin Encarnacion
I’m really just hoping that he catches better than he throws. Alex Anthopolous has hinted pretty strongly at optimistic expectations of Edwin having a breakthrough year, this season. If he plays 1st all season, doesn’t hurt the club defensively and gets into 150 or so games, I can see the rationale for a good year. This is a straight statistical dump, so don’t think that my prediction is being bolstered by any Alex man-crush thingy. He still scares me. PREDICTION: Average .260, HR 25, RBI 85, RUNS 70, SB 5.
TOP: Average .290, HR 30, RBI, 95, RUNS 80, SB 5
Catcher – John Paul Arencibia
Really? Who the hell knows. By the way, I’m done with J.P.’s; from now on he’s John Paul Arencibia. It’s impossible to make a prediction based on his brief time with the Jays so I’m going to try and reasonably extrapolate based on his minor league numbers. This will assume that he gets into about a hundred games or so. The acquisition and immediate trading of Napoli has to make him feel pretty integral to the club's plans. Within two years he will likely be the backup or traded for another value position as Travis D'Arnaud won't be kept down for much longer than that. The better he plays, the better the package if they end up moving him. PREDICTION: Average .260, HR 15, RBI 45, RUNS 35, SB 0.
TOP: Average .275, HR 20, RBI, 60, RUNS 45, SB 1
I expect that Lind and Encarnacion will go back and forth between first and DH. Lind bounced back a little better than Hill did after an horrific start. He still really hurt his career average but weirdly his other numbers weren’t that far off of his career stats. CBSSports ranks Lind as the 4th best DH out of the 14 American League clubs. Lind has always reminded me a little of Olerud in that he has a beautiful swing, is remarkably consistent and never seems to get excited. However he does have a pulse which makes him a little more excitable than Olerud. His ability to stay level is likely a factor in his rebound last year and the opposite is probably why Hill languished for so long.
PREDICTION: Average .270, HR 25, RBI 90, RUNS 80, SB 0.
TOP: Average .310, HR 35, RBI, 115, RUNS 95, SB 1, All Star, Silver Slugger.
Now, I've tried to be realistic with these predictions, but there are plenty of other things to consider. One of the major 'other things' is the fact that Davis, Rivera, Escobar and Arencibia, were not on the team last year. Additionally, Snider, Bautista, Encarnacion and Lind will be playing different positions. The only person who remains unchanged from last year in that he's on the same team in the same position, is Aaron Hill and it was Hill who is coming of the worst season of everyone.
Nothing is a lock. The Jays had a very good offensive team last year, leading the league in homeruns and finishing 6th in total runs. You would think that losing Buck (20HR), Wells (31HR), Overbay (20HR) and Alex Gonzalez (17HR in 85 games) would clobber a team. You would think that losing 34% of your teams power would be devastating. However, if Rivera, Escobar and Snider play to potential (not above), if Encarnacion breaks out (like Alex said he would) and if Hill and Lind return to form (or close) - the offensive dip, if there is one, will be negligible.
Now, I've tried to be realistic with these predictions, but there are plenty of other things to consider. One of the major 'other things' is the fact that Davis, Rivera, Escobar and Arencibia, were not on the team last year. Additionally, Snider, Bautista, Encarnacion and Lind will be playing different positions. The only person who remains unchanged from last year in that he's on the same team in the same position, is Aaron Hill and it was Hill who is coming of the worst season of everyone.
Nothing is a lock. The Jays had a very good offensive team last year, leading the league in homeruns and finishing 6th in total runs. You would think that losing Buck (20HR), Wells (31HR), Overbay (20HR) and Alex Gonzalez (17HR in 85 games) would clobber a team. You would think that losing 34% of your teams power would be devastating. However, if Rivera, Escobar and Snider play to potential (not above), if Encarnacion breaks out (like Alex said he would) and if Hill and Lind return to form (or close) - the offensive dip, if there is one, will be negligible.
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