Do You Like Apples?

Damn you Alex Anthopolous.  Damn you.

If a baseball beat reporter had written A Tale of Two Cities, it would have opened with “it was the best of times; yet ironically, it was the worst of times”.  It’s an old line, but hyperbole married with redundancy (he said twice) are the bench mark of effective sports journalism.  So is it irony or coincidence that Canada’s franchise playing Canada’s game has an arrogant American GM while Canada’s team playing America’s game has a Montreal native as its GM.  I would have thought that the Montrealer would be in charge of hockey where at least they have a tradition of winning occasionally.

It’s one of those things that keeps me up at night and leads to this conclusion:  As spring training approaches, I’m worried.

Oh, I know you’re asking “why?”.  The reason is actually quite simple.  You see, every fall I listen to Leaf fans talk about how things will be ‘different’ this year.  Of course, they never are.  Ever.  But they talk themselves into believing that that the odd player who had a breakthrough season last year won’t only repeat it, but will improve on it.  They’ll wish themselves into thinking that the exuberance and effort of the bottom 5 guys on the roster will make up for not having any top 5 guys on the roster.  At least none of any consequence.    They listen to their GM and coach talk about contending and ignore the fact that the team has finished 9^th, 9^th, 12^th, 12^th, and 15^th in the last 5 seasons. 

They watch.  They read.  Most importantly, they are crushed by losses because they really and sincerely believe. 

Belief in sport is the difference between having your heart broken and saying “oh well”.  It’s the difference between saying up until 2am to watch extra innings in Oakland and reading about the next day online.  Its the difference between Steve Simmons and a sports journalist. 

Now I’ve never been mistaken as a nay-sayer per se with the Jays, but years of JP drove a stake through the heart of my optimism.  Butchering the Delgado and Carpenter free agency periods, paying Koskie, Hinske and Gloss to play 3^rd base for other teams while paying Rolen to play for his, the distain for Toronto media, fans and players, the outright and admitted lies that he told...  honestly, it took its toll.  And to hear it all with that god damned, smug, Matt Damonesque, Boston accent was just too much for this cat.  How ya like ‘dem apples?

Then came the breath of fresh air.  AFA.  Alex Freakin Anthopolous.  Now instead of looking at every deal with the view of “here is how JP screwed up, again”, my view is now more along the lines of “finding the silver lining”.  If Alex did it, there must be something there that I’m not seeing or haven’t figured out yet. 

The Halladay deal?  The Jury is out, but the team was no worse without him (who saw that coming) and early returns look like it was good.  Are there questions about the Wells deal?  The Napoli to Texas trade? 

And look, for all of my ranting, all of JP’s moves weren’t bad.  He once traded John McDonald to the Tigers conditionally in July of ’05 and bought him back in November of the same year.  He got one of the best defensive short stops in the game.  Sure he already had him.  Sure he had to spend some of Ted Rogers hard earned money to pull off the stunning move of a acquiring a guy he already had.  Sure McDonald hits more like Sam Del Greco than Sam Caradonna, but a move is a move. 

Then we have Double AA trading Shawn Marcum to the Brewers for Brett Lawrie.  Almost instantly people started saying, “Marcum wasn’t THAT good anyway”, “we are deep at pitching”, “this Lawrie kid is a can’t miss prospect”.  Sure. 

Yes, Marcum was 13-8 and that alone doesn’t necessarily seem like a huge loss.  I mean, he’s not an ace, right?  Ace’s win twenty games or more and 13 looks nothing like 20.  In fact, my very own calculator says it’s approximately seven wins short.  So, by that reckoning, the American League has exactly one ace.  C.C. Sabathia.  He was the only pitcher to win 20 last year.  As a point of reference and because I’m a statistical junkie, here is the American League average for wins for each team’s top 5 winningest pitchers.  Make sense?  Avg wins for a #1 starter AL, 15.6; #2 starter 13; #3 starter 10.5; #4 starter 8.5; #5 starter 6.8.  By this rational, Marcum is a bang on number two starter. 

The deeper stats bear that out.   There are 14 teams in the League and each has 5 starters so measuring against his 70 contemporaries there were only 17 American League pitchers last year with more wins.  It's interesting that two of those were on his own team, but being 18^th overall in the League is nothing to sneeze at.  He was 24^th best in the league in innings pitched.  He was 15^th best in ERA. He was 23^rd in starts.  He was 17^th in strikeouts. He was 5^th in Walks + Hits per inning pitched (WHIP).  He was 13^th in quality starts, 3^rd in strikeout to walk ratio, 11^th lowest in stolen best allowed, 5^th best in caught stealing percentage and 5^th best in opponents on base percentage. 

None of the above stats are bad.  Some are good and others are really good.  I’m prepared to call Marcum a bona fide #2 with strong #1 tendencies.  As far as I’m concerned, it is a lot to give up.  Particularly when the guy coming back has zero major league at bats. 

Lawrie....Can’t miss?  In the spring of 2009 he was ranked as the 81^st best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America (great publication).  In the spring of 2010 he was ranked 59^th.  This year he's rated 28th.  In a list of each organization’s best prospects, Lawrie was rated as the Brewers 2^nd best prospect last year.  This year he's rated as the Jay's send best prospect behind Kyle Drabek.  My brain say he's "just a guy", nothing more. 

Now look at Marcum’s season last year and look at Lawrie.  Fair trade?  Even deal?  Did we get cleaned on this one?  Look at it this way.  What if JP announced this trade and not Anthopolous. 

Yeah, I thought so.  Me too.

Two years ago, I would have already been book the MRI for Lawrie because you know something would go wrong.  Not anymore. 

My heart is taking over from my brain.  I fully expect that Lawrie will be the next Paul Molitor.  A line drive gap hitter with speed and aggressive on the bases.  Why?  Alex Anthopolous said so, that’s why.  Oh, didn’t mention Molitor by name, but I’m extrapolating.  Maybe he’s going to be more a Boggs type.  I’d be okay with that too.

And back to the beginning, as spring approaches, I’m worried.  I'm worried because I'm shockingly optimistic and getting really close to believing.  Double AA has responded to the BLOG’s poll asking for bullpen help by acquiring Jon Rauch (Career best 21 saves), Octavio Dotel (career best 36 saves) and Frank Francisco (career best 25 saves).  Add that to Jason Frasor (career best 17 saves) and the opposition better get their scoring done in the first six innings because 7, 8 and 9 look fabulous!

I’m not suddenly predicting the Jays to win the World Series this year.  But I have to admit that I can kind of picture what would have to occur for it to happen.  And unlike previous years, that picture doesn't include monkeys, horeshoes, hand grenades or hell freezing over.    

I am dangerously close to believing.  I believe in the GM.  I believe in the back end of the bullpen.  I believe in the outfield.  I believe in the DH.  I believe in the middle infield.  I believe in 1^st base (offensively).  There are questions, for sure.  But the more I think about, the more I believe.   

Damn you Alex Anthopolous.  Damn you!