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Friday, December 10, 2010

Pat Gillick, Hall of Fame?

Stand Pat or Trader Pat?
I have no trouble admitting that Pat Gillick’s election to the baseball hall of fame caught me off guard.  My initial reaction was, “really?”  In truth, I’m not sure if I agree with this or not. 

By default and through no fault of his own, Gillick’s peer group is now, and forever will be, other GMs in the Hall of Fame.  Before looking at those people, let’s look at the Hall of Fame in general.  The Hall is reserved for the best in class.  This isn’t hockey or football.  A great season doesn’t get you in.  Ask Roger Maris.  Even a great career can be kind of iffy for admittance.  Ask Joe Torre, Ron Guidry or Edgar Martinez.
Louisiana Lightening 170-91, 3.28 ERA

In the order of votes received, the first 5 players ever elected to the Hall of Fame were Ty Cobb  (4191 hits, 1938 RBI, 892 SB .367 lifetime BA), Babe Ruth (94 wins, 2.38 ERA, 714 HRs, 2000 BB, .342 lifetime BA), Honus Wagner (3415 hits, 1700 Runs, 1700 RBI, .327 lifetime BA), Christy Mathewson (373 wins, 2502 Ks, 79 shutouts, 2.13 lifetime ERA) and Walter Johnson (417 wins, 3508 Ks, 110 shutouts, 2.17 lifetime ERA). 
Christy Mathewson (NOT Robert Redford playing Christy Mathewson)

Players eligible that did not make it on the first ballot included, Nap Lajoie (.338 BA), Tris Speaker (.345 BA), Cy Young (514 wins), Rogers Hornsby (.358 BA), Grover Cleveland Alexander (373 wins) and Lou Gehrig (.340 BA, 494 HRs)
Tris Speaker, 222 career triples

So if you think it is unfair that Jack Morris or Tim Raines isn’t in the Hall of Fame, consider the competition.  And when someone like Andre Dawson does get it, think of who he’s been measured against to have actually made that class. 

The Hawk, speed and power 400+HR, 300+SB

There are 30 non-players in the baseball hall of fame.  One writer, a few commissioners, many owners and managers and 3 men that have been GMs in baseball.  Before looking at their resumes, let’s take a  look at Gillick and what he did to earn his spot in the Hall. 

Gillick had a number of jobs in baseball, mostly around player development with the Yankees and Blue Jays prior to be named the General Manager of the Blue Jays in 1984.  People will forget, but back in the early days he was known by fans and media as “stand Pat” because of his unwillingness to make trades.  This was probably due to his first deal being an unmitigated disaster.  After losing out to Detroit in 1984, Gillick sent former stolen base leader Dave Collins and former rookie of the year Alfredo Griffin to Oakland for reliever/closer Bill Caudill.  No one needs to be reminded how that turned out. 
Caudill, 16 saves 10 losses over 2 years with the Jays

In 1985 and 1986 there were no trades of significance for the Jays.  Minor leaguers, fringe major leaguers and Rule 5 drafts to bolster depth, but nothing to put them ‘over the top’.   1987, 88 saw no trades but great drafts.  The Jays continued to be an over .500 club but couldn’t seal the deal.  They were commonly referred to as the ‘blow Jays’ in those days.  The nickname was unfortunately, but justly, earned when they blew a 3 ½ game lead with 7 left to play against Detroit in 1987.   That season culminated with what may have been the best 3 games I've ever seen in succession despite the fact that the Jay lost by 4-3, 3-2 and 1-0 scores. 

In 1989 Gillick made his first trade in 605 days (seriously).  He traded Jesse Barfield to the Yankees for Al Leiter.  Gillick also pulled the trigger on firing Jimy Williams 36 games into the season after a 12-24 start and replacing him with Cito Gaston.  It is well documented that Gaston was a placeholder while Gillick went after Lou Pinella.  It was Paul Beeston who insisted on keeping Gaston after the team responded by going 24-12 with him at the helm.  The Jays would come all the way back and win the division for the second time, this time by 2 games over Baltimore.  Just before the trade deadline, Gillick acquired Lee Mazzilli and Mookie Wilson from the New York Mets for Jeff Mussleman and a minor leaguer.  This “over the hump” move was harbinger of things to come.  It got his feet wet again but wasn’t nearly enough to catapult the Jays passed the Twins and into the World Series. 
In 1990 Gillick tried to go after pitching at the trade deadline and picked up John Candelaria from the Twins for Nelson Lariano and Pedro Munoz.  In September (all players had to clear waivers as the August 1st trade deadline had passed) Gillick moved pitchers Mauro Gozzo, Steve Cummings and Alex Sanchez for starting pitcher Buddy Black.  These moves did not result in a playoff appearance. 
Then all hell broke loose.  “Stand Pat” was now known as “Trader Pat”. 
Candelaria, 0-3, 5.48 ERA with the Jays
I distinctly remember picking up the Toronto Star on December 2nd 1990 and at the bottom left hand corner of the page was a 3 paragraph article under the headline “Jays and Angles trade headaches”.  That was the first domino to fall.  Junior Felix for Devon White.  Three days later, in what may be the only deal ever to involve 4 all-stars; Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff were traded to San Diego for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter. 
Felix, Killer speed, surprising power, no thought process

We’ll just let slide how much I hated the Fernandez deal. 

Gillick wasn’t done.  He acquired Rance Mulliniks and Pat Tabler through free agency that December.  In June of the 1991 season he got Kenny Williams (now GM of the White Sox) off of waivers from Montreal, and traded Denis Boucher, Glenallen Hill and Mark Whitten to Cleveland for Tom Candiotti and Turner Ward.  In July he traded a minor leaguer to Chicago for former rookie of the year Cory Snyder. In September he acquired Dave Parker as a power bat of the bench.  He rebuilt the roster in flight and won the division by 7 games over Boston. 

6-7, 2.98 ERA with the Jays


Everyone knows that this was the spring board to winning the World Series in 1992 and 1993; but, there was still plenty to do.  The Jays signed Jack Morris as a free agent in December of 1991 and the next day signed Dave Winfield.  The following spring the signed Alfredo Griffin as a free agent as well.  During the season (July 30) he traded Rob Ducey and Greg Myers to the Angels for Mark Eichhorn.  Then in a move that cemented a World Series but still makes me kind of sick he traded Ryan Thompson and Jeff Kent to the Mets for David Cone.  The rest is history. 
4-3, 2.55 with the Jays

After the World Series win in 1992 Gillick was right back at it, signing Paul Molitor as a free agent.  He followed that one up the next day with the announcement of Dave Stewart’s signing.  Eichhorn, Griffin and Dick Schofield were all brought back through free agency.  The two in-season deals that guaranteed another World Series title were the Darrin Jackson trade to the Mets in re-acquiring Tony Fernandez and the trade of Steve Karsay to Oakland for Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson. 
12-8, 4.44 with the Jays

The next season was the strike year and Gillick would leave on his own at that point to take over the role of General Manager with the Baltimore Orioles.  

The Blue Jays have not been back to the post season since he left.

Gillick was in Baltimore for the 1996, 1997 and 1998 seasons.  During that time frame they averaged 89 wins and won a division title. 

The Orioles have not been back to post season since he left. 

Pat would then land in Seattle for four seasons 2000-2003.  His first task as GM was to trade Ken Griffey Jr. In the post A-Rod and Jr era, the Mariners would average a ridiculous 98 wins a season in this stretch and see post season twice.  They have not been back to the playoffs since he left.    

He would then move to Philadelphia where they would average 89 wins a year, make the post season twice and win 1 World Series. 

So the summary.  4 teams.  3 World Series wins.  10 trips to the post season all in 21 years as the boss.  Pretty good.  Maybe very good.  Hall of Fame?  Wow.  Man....I don’t think so. 

There are 13 Managers in the Hall of Fame.  There are 3 (now 4) General Managers.  There are a couple of reasons for this disparity.  Once is that Managers have historically been valued higher.  Before the dawn of free agency (1970’s) a GM was as good as his scouts.  Trades occurred, but not typically with big names.  There was no draft, it was all about finding people and signing them.  GMs were horse dealers as much as they were baseball men.  The other reason is that the bar for GMs is extraordinarily high.  Let’s look at the other 3 who are in:

Ed Barrow
He was the field Manager of the 1918 Boston Red Sox when they won the World Series.  Big deal, except there is some baseball romance around that win because Boston wouldn’t win again for over 80 years.  He went on to become the GM of the Yankees in 1921.  He was there until 1945.  In those 24 seasons his teams would appear in the World Series 14 times, winning 10 of them.  Oh, and he has a flippin' plaque in center field at Yankee Stadium.  It might be easier to get into the Hall than get one of those.   
From Monument Park

George Weiss
Another Yankee architect.  Weiss was first hired in 1937 by the Yankees to re-build the farm system.  He grew the Yankee system from 4 minor league teams to 20.  In 1947 he was hired to replace Ed Barrow as GM.  It is “speculated” that Weiss had some old ideas about race that prevented the Yankees from being out front of integration in 1947 and perhaps explaining why it took until 1955 for them to finally have a player of colour (Elston Howard).  He would remain the Yankees GM until 1960.  From 61-66 he would be the GM for the Mets.   Poor bastard.  In his 14 years in New York the Yankees saw the World Series 11 times!  They won 8 times.  Racist or not, Weiss was an innovator with the farm team that he created and that was largest single reason they won as much as they did.  The 7 years with the Mets hurt his lore slightly, but only slightly.  Even counting the Mets year they won the world Series 8 out of 21 years. 

A Baseball GM featured in LIFE magazine?

Branch Rickey

The farm system that George Weiss put in place was built on the blue print put together by Branch Rickey who actually created the farm system concept in the early 1930’s in St. Louis.  After working with the Cardinals for over 20 years; at the age of 51, Rickey was hired away by the Brooklyn Dodgers.  Rickey continued to be an innovator.  He was instrumental in the adoption of batting helmets.  He created the 1st full time spring training facility in Vero Beach Florida.  He is also considered the father (or grandfather) of the statistical era of baseball.  This is due to his hiring of a statistician named Alan Roth in 1947.  Based on Roth’s data, it was Rickey’s contention that OBA was of more value to a team than batting average!  Radical stuff in 1947.

Oh ... and there’s the whole colour barrier thing. 

I often hear Rickey’s involvement in integration down played.  It shouldn’t be.  Neither (my opinion) should he be viewed as the great emancipator.  He was a baseball man.  He saw a way to upgrade & he did.  He also did something right and noble.  That’s good too.  By the way, on the topic of integration; not only did he make it possible for Jackie Robinson to be the first black player in Major League baseball, but Rickey also signed the 1st Hispanic player in 1954, maybe you heard of him:  Roberto Clemente.
Rickey, Jackie and Rachel Robinson

So in these previous GMs you have a brilliant innovator in Rickey, and two dynasty builders in Barrow and Weiss. 

What do you have with Gillick?  I'll give Gillick two things.  One, he never forgets a face.  That much is legend about him.  Two, he was the first (maybe) GM to exploit the cellphone.  Beyond that, I'm not sure what he did that was Hall of Fame worthy.  Is winning a championship with 2 different clubs worthy?  Is going to the World Series with 3 different clubs worthy?  Is going to the post season with 4 different clubs worthy?  Not in my book.  

Truthfully, I don’t know that he’s even the best of his era as I’ve heard said WAY too often over the last few days.  John Schuerholz was the GM in Kansas City from 1982-1989.  They had a World Series win, 3 trips to the post season and 6 winning seasons.  He then went to Atlanta where they had just had their 7th consecutive losing season.  They would win the division for the next 14 years in a row.

Now you could say that Schuerholz had the benefit of Ted Turner's money to solve problems, but don't forget that the Jays had the leagues highest payroll when they won the World Series.  Gillick was not financially hampered in Baltimore, Philadelphia or Toronto.  Seattle is likely another story. 

Schuerholz Royals beat Gillick's Jays in 1985.  The Roles were reversed in 1992.  Head to head they wash out.    

Objectively though, Gillick or Schuerholz?

Schuerholz wrote the book on winning

It’s not that I'm not happy for Gillick that he's made it to the hallowed Hall, it’s just that we need to recognize that the bar to jump over just got a whole lot lower.  Its used to be very unlike baseball to do this, but I guess its trending that way.  More teams in the post season have skewed the lore of past achievements.  Case in point, Manny Ramirez, Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter all have more post season home runs than Mickey Mantle who hit all of his in the world series.  I can't say that I understand the shift 'undeniably great' to 'really good', but I'm pretty sure that Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman are starting to work on their induction speeches. 

7 comments:

  1. Interesting blog, but too much history. Would like to see more current blogs on the jays or like Rule 5 in the winter meetings blog. Overall great reading, but not so much a fan of old history.

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  2. In my defence, its hard to find "new history" but I'll work on that.

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  3. I want to hear your opinion on the big trade - really, what did you think of Tony Fernadez?

    JZ

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  4. Next BLOG will either be:

    o Why the tell isn't Tony Fernandez in the HoF?
    o Roberto Alomar; good, but no Damaso Garcia.
    o Why didn't Joe Carter have 200 RBI with White Almoar and Molitor ahead of him.
    o Fred McGriff: Is he being kept out of the HoF because he's Irish?

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  5. Nice choronology on the building of the Blue Jays there, Doug. A few points to also consider, though your milage may vary whether they are significantly impactful to Gillick's election.

    My point would be that a GM's primary objective is to build a team that gets to the post-season. Playoff wins/success is more an execution role that aligns to the success of the manager. The GM has a role in choosing the manager and getting the right players for sure but, in my book, but GM's successes are best measured on post-season appearances.

    So looking at Gillick's playof appearances, he was a AGM/GM for 28 active years and made the playoffs 11 times (a 40% rate). If we remove the 1977-82 years when the Jays were building, that playoff appearance rate goes to 50%. That's an extraordinary record.

    Schuerholz is ever more impressive with 53% rate though a part of that had to do with the Braves having little competition in the NL East for the majority of his tenure. So would I have a problem if Schuerholz gets into the Hall? His record ceretainly stands up to scrutiny. Time will tell if Epstein and Cashman will have continued success or get canned/promoted first.

    One point to also consider is that under Gillick's tenure as GM, the Blue Jays were the first team to tap extensively into the Dominican Republic talent pool. Hiring a local scout (Epy Guerrero) and having a permanent presence was an innovation that has become the model that all other teams follow.

    So I can't say that I agree with your assessment that he lowers the bar for future GMs. In fact I would suggest that he sets a benchmark for post-expansion executives to be judged in terms of success across a long tenure.

    Steve

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  6. And that's not Christy Mathewson, that's John Barlow :)

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  7. Steve: Disagree with the winning percentage/playoff appearance arguement. Only on the basis that Wild Cards and Division wins water it down. The yankees winning the AL pennant 11/14 years is beyond the scale of what can be done or has been done since. (The Blue Jays under Gillick had the best record in the AL only twice....under ther old rules they would have seen post season only 2 instead of 5 times)

    Epy Guerrero is a great point and shouldn't have been over looked. At one point in the 80's 19/40 Jays roster spots were Dominican and signed by Guerrero. He's placed more people in the majors than any other single scout.

    I didn't include him because he was hired as a 'coach' by the Blue Jays (1981) before Gillick was hired was hired as GM (1984). Further, while the Blue Jays were the best in exploiting the Dominican, they weren't the first. The Dodgers beat them and got a head start on mining there.

    You're correct that Gillick isn't given credit in this area (by me). He and Epy were minor leaguers together in Houston. They worked together in the low minors when their playing days were done. When Gillick went to the NYYs, Guerrero followed. When Gillick went to the Jays, Guerrero followed.

    Here's what Epy said about Gillick when I called him this afternoon, "During the ’80s and early ’90s Guerrero was the game’s most productive scout. According to Guerrero, Gillick always supported his judgment. The best illustration was the signing of Carlos Delgado.
    “I see him,” Guerrero says, looking at a photo of Delgado in the minors. “I phone Pat. ‘We gotta sign him.’ Pat tells me he got no money. I say, ‘Find it.’ It gonna take $100,000 bonus or Atlanta gonna sign him. Pat comes down. He gotta ask owners for money outta next year’s budget. We sign him. We go to the airport, Atlanta guys are coming. We say, “Don’t bother. We signed him.’ They don’t believe us – till they go to Carlos’s house.”

    Actually that was from a Gary Joyce article http://garejoyce.blogspot.com/2007/01/celebrity-scout-goes-over-to-dark-side.html

    Good points Steve...thanks.

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