Pages

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Albert, Albert, Albert

Albert Pujols is coming off the worst season of his 11 year professional career. 
  • He led the league grounding into 29 double plays.
  • He had a career low in total bases (313), his career average is 370.
  • He had a career low in On Base Plus Slugging (.906), his career average is 1.037
  • He had a career low in On Base Percentage (.366), career average .420
  • He had a career low in Slugging Percentage (.541), career average .617
  • He had a career low in Batting Average (.299), career average .328
  • He had a career low in Walks (61), career average 93
  • He had a career low in RBI (99), career average 126
  • He had a career low in Doubles (29), career average 43
  • He had a career low in Hits (173), career average 197
He finished 5th in MVP voting.  Okay, start over.  His worst season EVER in ten pretty significant categories.  5th in MVP voting.  5th! Is there any doubt that he's the best player (hitter) in the game?

Albert Pujols is poised to become the richest man in baseball.  Should he be?

Lets look at those lows and some other numbers and how he ranked in the National League.  Remember these are taking the categories that he did the worst in and looking at his competition. 

Career Lows:
  • Total bases, ranked 5th in the league
  • On Base Plus Slugging, ranked 10th in the league
  • On Base Percentage, ranked 13th in the league
  • Slugging Percentage, ranked 7th in the league
  • Batting Average, ranked 14th in the league
  • Walks, ranked 19th in the league
  • RBIs, ranked 7th in the league
  • Doubles, ranked 34th in the league
  • Hits, ranked 9th in the league
Other Stats

These are categories in which Pujols did not have career lows, although most are 2nd worst and ALL are significantly down.
  • Runs (105), ranked 3rd.
  • Home Runs (34), ranked 1st
  • Extra Base Hits (66), ranked 10th
You need to ask yourself if this is the first sign of decline from Albert or just a blip.  It should be noted that if it is a "blip"; then the blip currently has him as one of the top 10 player in the NL.  If we look at the same stats from the all-star break forward you will see the numbers a little differently.
  • Total bases, ranked 2nd (up from 5th)
  • On Base Plus Slugging, 8th (up from 10th)
  • On Base Percentage, 13th (unchanged)
  • Slugging Percentage, 4th, (up from 7th)
  • Batting Average, ranked 7th (up from 14th)
  • Walks, ranked 26th (down from 19th)
  • RBIs, ranked 2nd (up from 7th)
  • Doubles, ranked 10th (up from 34th)
  • Hits, ranked 4th (up from 9th)
  • Runs, ranked 3rd (unchanged)
  • Home Runs, ranked 2nd (down from 1st)
  • Extra Base Hits, ranked 4th (up from 10th)

My money is on "blip".  Regardless, that was one hell of a down year!

There are a few different ways to measure the "greatness" of a ball player.  If its the greatest single season, then you need to simply match up numbers, but if its greatest of all-time, it gets a little dicey.  I think that to even start the discussion, you have to look at a really grand scale to see if there is even a conversation to be had.  Where I chose to start is MVP voting. 

Looking at every single MVP vote that has ever been cast and seeing who has the largest percentage of the total votes would seem to be good baseline indicator.  It awards long term consistency and eliminates one or two incredible years distorting things.  Looking at the top 10:

1.  Barry Bonds (9.3% of MVP votes ever cast)
2.  Stan Musial (6.96%)
3.  Albert Pujols (6.51%)
4.  Ted Williams (6.43%)
5.  Willie Mays (6.06%)
6.  Mickey Mantle (5.79%)
7.  Hank Aaron (5.45%)
8.  Lou Gehrig (5.44%)
9.  Joe DiMaggio (5.43%)
10.  Alex Rodriquez (5.23%)

Seven hall of famers, 2 admited steroid users (although Bonds maintains he didn't know what it was (and Clinton didn't inhale)) and Albert Pujols.  Lets leave the cheaters out of it for a minute because it upsets me.  The other seven are aren't JUST ball players.  And they aren't just hall of famers - they ARE baseball!  They are the benchmark by which all others are measured.  Stan the Man, the last man with a 5 home run game; The Splendid Splinter the last man to hit .400; The Say Hey Kid second all time to Ruth in legitimate home runs; The Mick the first man to have 250 home runs from both sides of the plate; Hammerin' Hank who set the mark for career home runs; The Iron Horse who's consecutive game streak stood for 56 years and Joltin' Joe who's 56 game hitting streak still stands today.  Is Pujols worthy of being in that conversation?  I submit the only category that fails in against these guys is having a legendary nickname.

At least one of these men was playing ball in the majors from 1923 through to 1976 when Aaron hung them up; then there a nine year break before a string bean of a young man named Barry Bonds showed up.  So their careers span 79 of the last 88 years of baseball.  Comparisons are flawed for a lot of reasons so lets look at a couple of major ones.  The pre 1947 players obviously had the advantage of playing in a non-integrated era of baseball.  Some of the best competition available wasn't, "available".  Players post-1967 had the advantage of playing in an era where the mound was lowered and the DH added to the American League.  Both are tangible hitter advantages not afforded earlier players.  Expansions in the 60's, 70's and 90's probably watered down the baseball pool at least somewhat giving another advantage to the above average hitter. 

That being said, lets trudge forward with a comparission knowing that its not 100% accurate. 

I've taken the 10 players and boiled down their career stats into a single 162 game season.  Its not a complicated formula, and it puts all of the players on the same playing field, so to speak.  When taking the ten players above and breaking their stats into the 16 most commonly rated offensive categories; I've shown the leader of the stat and where Pujols ranks among them:

Plate Appearances (all are per season)
     Lou Gehrig          723
     Albert Pujols       706 (4th)
At Bats
     Joe DiMaggio     637
     Albert Pujols       600 (4th)
Runs  
     Lou Gehrig         141
     Albert Pujols      123 (4th)
Hits
     Joe DiMaggio      204
     Albert Pujols       197 (3rd)
Doubles
     Albert Pujols        43
     Lou Gehrig           40 (2nd)
Triples
     Lou Gehrig           12
     Albert Pujols          1 (10th)
Home Runs   
     Albert Pujols        42
     Alex Rodriquez    42
     Barry Bonds         41 (2nd)
Runs Batted In
     Lou Gehrig           149
     Albert Pujols        128 (4th)
Stolen Bases
     Barry Bonds         28
     Albert Pujols          8 (6th)
Walks
     Ted Williams        123
     Albert Pujols          93 (5th)
Strike Outs
     Joe DiMaggio        34
     Albert Pujols          67 (5th)
Batting Average
     Ted Williams          .344
     Albert Pujols          .328 (4th)
On Base Percentage
     Ted Williams          .482
     Albert Pujols          .420 (5th)
Slugging Percentage
     Ted Williams          .634
     Albert Pujols          .617 (3rd)
On Base Plus Slugging
     Ted Williams          1.116
     Albert Pujols          1.037 (4th)
Total Bases
     Lou Gehrig             379
     Albert Pujols          370 (2nd). 

When you talk all their rankings against their peers and average them out, the order of finish is 1. Gehrig, 2. Williams, 3. Pujols, 4. DiMaggio, 5. Rodriquez, 6. Bonds, 7. Musial, 8. Aaron, 9. Mays, and 10. Mantle.  Remember, these are their career numbers averaged out; NOT their best individual seasons.   

If I were AA and could have Kemp, Bautista, Braun or Fielder I'd look at it.  They are fairly comparable players with pluses and minuses and there is a market price that's appropriate for all of them.  They could be the best hitter in the league any given year.  Or; in an off year, they could just be 'a guy'.  An off year for Pujols is top 5 in MVP voting. 

If you were told that Pujols were a free agent and all it took to get him was money, wouldn't you open the vault?  Would there have been a dollar figure that was too high to pay Ted Williams?  Was there a dollar figure that was too high to pay Joe DiMaggio?  Albert Pujols, in my rankings anyway, if between the two of them.  Ahead of Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Musial and the cheaters. 

Granted, it ain't my money; but I'd like to know that my obscene cable bill is being used for something!

Albert, Albert, Albert.

(next week, Brandon Morrow indepth.  Be afraid.  Be VERY afraid)

No comments:

Post a Comment