The Blue Jay Review: A.J. Morrow, Don't Believe the Hype

When you talk to people about the Blue Jays rotation, you hear things like: Romero is a #1 starter, Morrow’s a top end guy, Drabek projects to be...blah, blah, blah...I tune out.

The Jays have had more than their fair share of 1 & 2 pitchers over the years. Stieb, Hentgen, Clemens, Key, Morris, and Halladay are all unargueable sure front enders. I’m prepared to entertain discussions about Rickey Romero eventually being on that list, but he’s not there now. Its not just the wins and ERA, its the ‘battle’ in the guy. Right now Rickey is in that next teir with guys like Wells, Clancy, Stewart, Marcum and Loaiza. Good. Sometimes real good. But not a #1.

So what is a #1 starter? The wins are important. The ERA matters somewhat. The battle factor is key. But there is a difference between a bona fide #1 starter and everyone else on the team. The difference is this: “Are you going to the Yankees game?” OR “Are you going to the Sabathia start?”. They own the game. There is something special about a Halladay start. A Hershiser start. A Gibson start. A Maddux start. It might not be fully tangible, but there is an aura to the game.

Number 1’s at their worst are good. At the best their dominant. Yes, they can get blown out once or twice a year...but even in those games, they rarely leave with their tails between their legs. Lets take Cy Young Award winner and MVP Justin Verlander for example. On July 15^th against the White Sox he gave up four runs in the 3^rd inning. If that was (for example), Jesse Litsch, you’d be thinking – “here we go....get him out before it gets any worse.” Verlander threw 60+ pitches through 3 innings and trailed 4-0. You wouldn’t be wrong to think that he wasn’t long for the game.

But; he’s a legitimate #1. In the 4^th inning the Sox go three up and three down. In the 5^th, the Sox get an unearned run on a Richie Raburn error. In the 6^th inning they get a single and nothing more. Verlander leaves gracefully after 6. He kept his team in it when he didn't have his 'good' stuff. He went six innings, threw 110 pitches, struck out six. He threw first pitch strikes to 21 out 28 batters faced.

That was Verlander’s WORST start of the year. That is a #1

Now. Brandon Morrow. He is not a top end of the rotation guy unless your sights are set extremely low. Like Maple Leaves goaltending low. Morrow is the classic example of a guy who will end up overpaid for his contribution. Think A.J. Burnett. Great start, okay start, tragic start. Repeat.

They Yankees (thankfully) overpaid for him so the Jays former regime couldn’t keep him even though they really, really, really, really, really wanted to. What the pinstrippers ALSO did was raise the average salary for mediocre pitchers. The Yankees got what they paid for (in that it was a known quantity) and now they can’t unload him because no one would touch that contract. Why? a) You can’t trust him and b) you can get a guy to produce those results at 10% of the price. He could throw a no hitter or give up seven runs in the first inning in every single start. There are no grooves, trends, or tendencies; with the exception of mastering unpredictability.

I’ve used the Burnett example for 2 years to anyone who would listen and decided that I should finally do a little research to see if I was in the ball park. Now bear in mind that A.J. is a 13 year vet with a 121-111 career record. With the Yankees (3yrs) he’s a game over .500; that don’t fly in the Bronx. Burnett’s best season ever was his last with Jays when he went 18-10. Wow! What are the odds of doing that in a contract year???. Other than that one flash, he’s never been more than 4 games over .500 and never more than 5 games under .500.

So a little perspective. I don’t hate Burnett. He is what he is. Todd Stottlemyre (138-121), Kevin Tapani (143-125), Estoban Loaiza (126-114), Jamie Navarro (116-126), Pedro Astacio (129-124) and Scott Erikson (142-136) are his contemporaries. All of those guys had a (singular) lights out season. But when you look at their career as a whole, would you pay them to be a #1? A #2? A #3?

Would you pay them 16.5 million in each of the next two years? OUCH!

If you love A.J. Burnett this will be lost on you. Mind you, if you love A.J. Burnett, you’re already lost. The truth is that the Jays had to pay 2.3 million for Morrow’s 11-11 season last year. That isn’t bad value. Actually, its pretty good. Its really good when you consider that its 14.2 million less than the Yanks paid Burnett to produce the identical record. But at some point the Jays are going to have to make a financial decision or commitment to him. He is arbitration eligible for the coming year and the year after. If the Jays don’t sign him long term, he’ll be a free agent for the 2014 season. If things continue to progress for the team as AA is projecting they will, 2014 will be the second year of the Jays playing meaningful baseball in September. Do you want him for that? If you do, at what price?

If salaries continue to escalate in baseball at the same rate (roughly 9%) then the 16.5 million that A.J. makes would look more like 20+ million in 2014. So. Do you still want AA’s job?

Now you know the decision that needs to be forth coming. You know who A.J. Burnett is and who he legitimately compares to. Now, why do I think that Morrow is nothing more than a mirror image of that overpaid and underperforming player?

Lets look at their first 5 major league season.

Burnett 30 wins 32 losses (.483 winning percentage)

Morrow 29 wins 30 losses (.491 winning percentage)

Burnett 4.06 ERA

Morrow 4.37 ERA

Burnett 9 Complete Games

Morrow 1 Complete games

Burnett 6 Shut Outs

Morrow 1 Shut Out

Burnett 524.2 Innings Pitched

Morrow 523.1 Innings Pitched

Burnett 45 Home Runs Allowed

Morrow 55 Home Runs Allowed

Burnett 260 Walks

Morrow 263 Walks

Burnett 442 Strike Outs

Morrow 585 Strike Outs

Burnett 1.413 Walks + Hits per inning pitched.

Morrow 1.382 Walks + Hits per inning pitched.

Burnett 7.42 Strike Outs per 9 innings

Morrow 10.1 Strike Outs per 9 innings

Morrow strikes out more batters, but has a worse ERA. Strike outs are great, but we all know that they aren’t very democratic. They don’t involve the whole team! I’m only partially kidding here. Unless you’re Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden or Roger Clemens, (and a hand full of others) the strike out doesn’t help a whole hell of a lot. It eats up pitches for one thing. Makes it tough to work deep into games. To do so you have to be damn near perfect. Here is the statistically boring part that I find facinating. Consider that the average at bat when the ball is put in play is 3.38. Consider too, that the average number of pitches per strikeout is 4.82. It doesn't take long to deduce that you would need to throw 91 pitches to get 27 outs with hit balls; versus 130 pitches to get 27 outs by strikeout.

So we know that neither of the above is going to happen, but it speaks to very real stats of Brandon Morrow that should be extremely concerning to both Jays fans and AA.

AJ Burnett gave up 101 RBIs this past year, the 6th highest total in the league. Morrow allowed 92. Burnett had 24 stolen bases allowed (6th worst); Morrow 17. At .296, Morrow was 8th worst in the league on batting average of balls put in play (takes away errors, strikeouts and walks); Burnett was .285. AJ was 3rd worst in the league with a WHIP of 1.43; Morrow clocked in at 1.29, good for 18th worst. Morrow was dead last in the league taking an average of 17.1 pitches to complete an inning. Burnett was 3rd at 16.9. Morrow was 5th worst in pitches per plate appearance at 4.01; Burnett was at 3.85. Finally, there were no less than 35 pitchers in the American league who averaged at least 100 pitches per start in 2011. Out of those 35 pitchers, only A.J. Burnett worked fewer (5.9) innings pers start than did Brandon Morrow (6.0).

Maddux, Possibly the Best EVER

The future doesn't look really bright. There is no doubt that Morrow has a million dollar arm, but he's a one trick pony. He lives and dies with the strikeout which makes him detrimental to the bull pen. It also give him no recourse to get out of trouble. Last year he had preciesly 1 double play turned behind him because virtually everything that does get hit; gets hit in the air. As a reference point, Romero had 28 double plays behind him.

On the topic of efficeny; although I love Halladay, Greg Maddux is the poster child for doing more with less. Honestly, he makes Halladay look kind of Ho-hum. In 1995, Maddux had 5 complete game victories where he threw less than 100 pitches. That is amazing. In those 5 games (45 innings) he walked 2 batters, gave up 5 runs and struck out 28 batters.

Think about this....in 4 of those 5 games, he threw under 90 pitches. Frig.

Morrow, Shockingly in Trouble

Back to Morrow.

If you want to keep him at 16 – 20 million, you can only really do so if you believe that he is either going to be the dominant strikeout pitcher that will completely own games consistently, al a Ryan, Gooden or Clemens. Or you have to believe that he’ll be able to cut down his pitches, allow the ball to put in play and work deep into games in the same manner as Halladay and Maddux. The danger though is that he gets lit up when the ball is put is play.

If you don’t believe that either will happen, in which case, he is A.J. Burnett. Dominant, Mediocre, Bad, Repeat. Sometimes those mediocre games are wins and sometimes they aren’t. Sometimes you get lightening in a bottle and a lot of the mediocre starts are wins. Then they go 18 – 10 and have people using phrases like “turned the corner” when it really isn’t true. This is the track record for both these guys. When you consider that .500 pitchers can generally be had for 2 – 5 million, why would you handcuff your team by committing long term at a big price for this guy.

We lament a lot about the guys that got away. Carpenter and Halladay are recent examples. There are some people who complain about Shaun Marcum leaving (me among them). Its a matter of your taste I guess. But have you ever heard anyone complaining about Burnett leaving? Me neither. But people love his clone, Morrow.

AJ Burnett

Maybe its a hockey thing, people seem to fall in love with the ‘potential’ not the reality. See Sil Campusano and Eddie Zosky if you need a refresher. Or of course, Nazem Kadri should explain the position.

Chuck D from Public Enemy said it best: Don’t believe the hype, its a sequel.