And the Cy Young Goes to????

I didn’t see Felix Hernandez winning the Cy Young.  I really didn’t. 

Its not that I don’t think that he deserved it, but that is NOT the way that voting for the Cy Young typically works.  Not at all!  I’m wondering if the back lash of Jeter winning a Gold Glove (as awarded by players and coaches) made the baseball writers of America (BBWAA) even more ‘holier than thou’ than normal in making sure that they did this properly.  The timing of the voting probably gets in the way of that thinking.

When there is a clear cut winner, say Halladay this year, they are good.  When it takes some thinking however, they usually don’t!

I know you’re dying for examples:

2005

Player                   Wins      ERA        WHIP     K’s          W%        Innings

Bartolo Colon     21           3.48        1.18        157         72%        222.7

Johan Santana    16           2.87        0.97        238         70%        231.7

2002

Barry Zito             23           2.75        1.13        182         82%        229.3                    

Pedro Martinez    20           2.26        0.92        239         83%        199.3

Those are two fairly recent examples, but there are plenty.  What Felix Hernandez reminded me of though was Dave Stieb.  This is what the Motown Sports Revival  had to say about Dave Stieb and keep in mind that Motown in general has very little nice to say about Stieb, “Dave Stieb has been more adversely affected by poor Cy Young voting than any other pitcher in MLB history. He should have won two Cy Young awards. Instead, he has zero.”  They go on to chronicle how he should have won the 1985 and 1982 Cy Young awards.  You can read it here.  Yes it sucks to be Dave Stieb some days.  But maybe you can better understand that chip on shoulder.

My favourite year for Stieb was 1982.  Technically, he was more dominant in 1985, but in ’85 they had offence and defense.  They had Moseby, Bell, Barfield, Mullin-org, Fernandez, Garcia, Upshaw and Martinez and Whitt.  They were solid and not solely dependent on Stieb to win games anymore. 

In 1982, Whitt and Martinez were full timers by the end of the year but the season started with Geno Petralli behind the plate.  Barfield and Barry Bonnell were the platoon left field, Moseby played centre and Hosken Powell and Al Woods patrolled left (not at the same time, but that would have helped).  The biggest difference in the infield was in Alfredo Griffen and his 241 batting average and 26 errors at short stop (god I still miss Tony).  Also 1^st base was a young Willie Upshaw slowly taking the position away from Big John Mayberry. 

In short, it was a team in transition.  Don’t get me wrong, the transition was good and needed, but the only real constant and reliable piece in the mix was Stieb.  In 1982 the team was 78-84 (.481 winning percentage), Stieb was 17-14 (.548).  Big deal in the grand scheme of things, your #1 starter had better have a higher winning percentage that the team overall.  But check out these numbers:

ERA:       3.25        Games Started:                  38         Complete Games:  19 (not a miss print)

Shut outs:  5 (not a miss print)    Innings Pitched:                  288.1

The Complete Games, Shut outs and Innings Pitched all led the league that season.  After 28 seasons of Blue Jays baseball since, all three are STILL team records.  Still.  Hentgen, Morris, Stewart, Key, Wells, Cone, Clemens and Halladay.  Four Blue Jay Cy Young awards and multiple pitching all-star appearances later and Stieb still owns these records. 

The 5 shutouts have been bested 3 times in the American League since.  In all cases the pitcher has won the Cy Young.  The 19 Complete games has been topped once, the pitcher won the Cy Young. 

Felix Hernandez, not to diminish the award, likely won it this year more because he DIDN’T win it last year when he was 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA and 238 innings pitched.  A lot of people will think its silly that a guy with 13 wins won the Cy. 

I just think of Dave Stieb. The greatest pitcher to not win a Cy Young.  Twice.

  

The Rajai Davis Trade

Rajai Davis

I saw the announcement of the Rajai Davis trade and my immediate reaction was WooHoo!  Toronto hasn’t had a legitimate stolen base threat since Dave Collins stole 60 in 1984 (still the team record).  Yes, we’ve had fast guys, but we have never really had that “uh-oh, that guy is on” guy.  I know, you’ll say what about Wells, White, Alomar, Stewart?  Wells, for all his speed has never even stolen 20 bases in a season.  In Devon White’s 5 seasons in Toronto he had a total of 124 stolen bases (25/year average).  Roberto Alomar, probably the most gifted athlete ever to play in Toronto averaged slightly over 40 steals a year and was the closest thing that we ever had to a “money” threat.  Shannon Stewart was easily the speediest player we’ve ever had (as an every day starter) but that did not translate to steals.  He topped 50 in his first year as a full time player, but then dropped to 37, 20, 27, 14 and 4 in the next five years. 

My hope is that Rajai Davis can be that “real” threat!  Speed like his can completely disrupt a pitchers rhythm and mechanics.  The good ones are game changers. So what do I do?  I look at the numbers. 

Davis came from the Oakland A’s and what do we know about Oakland since the bash brothers days?  One, they are fundamentally sound.  They play exceptional defence, they play ‘small ball’ better than anyone in the American League (Mauer and Morneau no longer have the Twins as the ‘small ball’ winners) and they cultivate winners out of average players.  The finished .500 in 2010, .466 in ’09, .466 in ’08, .469 in ’07, .574 in ’06, .543 in ’05, .562 on ’04....never more than 5 games back of .500, a couple of playoff appearances and a payroll in the bottom third.  They draft well and trade better. 

So we know that Davis is from a good quality organization where he had 50 stolen bases last year.  Not Rickey Henderson (or Dave Collins) but in this era of baseball where managers are absolutely terrified to put runners in motion and give up an out – this is a massive number.  Only two players in baseball had more steals than Davis last year;  Juan Pierre in Chicago (68) and Michael Bourn in Houston (52).  For the sake of argument, I’m going to consider them to be Davis’ peer group. 

 Michael Bourn

Last year Juan Pierre was safely at 1^st base ((hits+walks+hit by pitch)-(doubles+triples+homeruns)) a total of 223 times.  Of those times he successfully stole 30.5% of the time.  Michael Bourn’s average was 30.4 and Davis’ was 35.9%.  Theoretically, 1 out of every 3 times he’s standing at 1^st base he’s going to successfully steal 2^nd. 

Juan Pierre

A couple of points about this ‘made at home calculation’.   It doesn’t account for the number of times that a player was a 1^st with runners ahead of him; neither does it consider the game situation.  Also, it doesn’t assume that a runner could steal 3^rd base.  As a point of comparison, when Ricky Henderson stole 130 bases in 1982 his average would have been 58.3.  So while I don’t pretend this is definitive, I think it’s a reasonable bench mark. 

Rickey being Rickey

From a percentage basis, Davis ranks ahead of his peer group in steals.  He’s is also better than the other two in his success rate.  Davis is at 82%$, Bourn 81% and Pierre 79%.   Add to that, the fact that he can hit and you’ve really got something!  In the last two years he’s hit .305 and .284 for Oakland.  Before you say, “big deal”, either of those averages would have led the Blue Jays in hitting last year. 

Now the A’s are not a club that gives away all-stars or hall of famers, (not that he’s either) so there has to be a downside.  As I see it (numerically) there are two.  The first is that his on base percentage is just slightly better than his batting average.  The guy simply doesn’t walk.  That alone is enough to fall out of favour in Oakland where the GM (Billy Beane) over values things that won’t cost you in salary, like walks.  So if the Jays are thinking of Davis as a lead-off man, it seems like a bad fit.  Just to compare, he walks about HALF as much as Devon White did!  And I’m sure you’ll remember the complaints about White being a poor choice to lead off because his on base average wasn’t good. 

The second issue, and this is potentially disastrous, is Davis’ record last year against the American League East.  Perhaps it’s an anomaly, but please consider that his .284 batting average last year was actually 21^st best in the entire league!  You would think that someone in the top 25 would have a measure of consistency overall, but his stats against the AL East are simply dreadful.  Versus Baltimore he hit a Gwyneth Paltry .211, and that was the best!  Against Tampa he hit .182, Boston .139 and New York a brutal .115. 

Ouch. 

Next year roughly 40% of his at bats for the entire season will be against those 4 clubs.  If an inability to hit against the pitching in the East is real, it could be very very ugly.   

However, I’m going to sit back and hope it’s a blip. 

Based on the Roster the way it currently stands, opening day looks like this:

1.       Yunel Escobar, SS    

2.       Aaron Hill, 2B

3.       Adam Lind, 1B

4.       Jose Bautista, 3B

5.       Vernon Wells, CF

6.       Travis Snider, DH

7.       Fred Lewis, LF

8.       J.P. Arencibia, C

9.       Rajai Davis, RF

At this point, the Blue Jays wish list has to include another outfielder, DH or 1^st baseman.  An outfielder would replace Lewis, a DH would bump Snider back to the outfield taking out Lewis and a 1^st baseman would made Lind to DH, Snider to the outfield and Lewis to the bench. 

There is at least one more move to consider next year’s roster an upgrade over 2010.  Of course, pitchers are ALWAYS in need, but as far as positional players go, I think Jason Giambi solves a lot of problems and the price would probably be right. 

Gold Glove

Here is the deal with the Gold Glove; I'm not going to run the list of who one them, but cause you can look that up at any number of credible sources. 

I'm neither credible nor a source, so I'm just going to provide my little spin on my most favourite award.

Lets start with the history of the award.  The correct name is the "Rawlings Gold Glove Award for Fielding Excellence".  Since being established in 1957, the trophy (seen above) is given to the best defensive player at each position.  The award is voted on by managers and coaches in major league baseball.  The only restriction is that managers can't vote for their own players.  This seems pretty cut and dry, right?

Yeah, well not so much. 

Every year there seems to be a debate about someone who was overlooked.  And about every 10 years there is a debate about someone who should not have won.  These are two very different arguments. 

Take this year.  Jose Bautista did not win a Gold Glove.  He was second in the league in outfield assists and had an excellent fielding percentage and did that while playing only 2/3 of the season in right field.  You weigh that against a guy like Ichiro Suzuki and you can build a good argument.  Supporters of Ichiro will say that his assists are down because people don't run on him.  Supporters of Bautista would say that he was penalized because he played too many games at 3rd base.  Regardless, the argument is more about Bautista being overlooked that about Ichiro being 'unworthy'. 

Then you have Derek Jeter.  There is no argument about a particular short stop being overlooked in Jeter's win.  There is talk about EVERY short stop being overlooked.  This discussion has been all about a wrong decision.  I'm not going to go into gory details here, but just about every possible measuring stick shows Jeter in the bottom 1/3 of short stops.  Trust me when I say I'm being kind.  Its actually much, much worse!

So how can something this bad happen?  Before we speculate on this, lets remember that:

• Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove at 1st base in 1999 while playing only 28 games at first and the rest of the season at DH.   

• Maury Wills of the Dodgers once won a Gold Glove at short stop while making a whooping 36 errors in a season (one every 4.5 games)!!!   

• Dwight Evans won a Gold Glove in the outfield with 10 errors!  How does even a below average outfielder hit double digits in errors?

• Kenny Lofton speed demon center fielder for Cleveland won with 10 errors in 1996.  (his worst year ever, career average for errors was 3)

• Only one catcher has ever won a Gold Glove while making 20 errors.  That was Thruman Munson.  he did it TWICE! 22 errors in 1973 and 23 errors in 1974.

 

• Pitchers are generally a joke in this award, but Jim Kaat won a Gold Glove in 1969, a year in which he had 8 errors on the mound and a ridiculous .825 fielding percentatage in what was his worst defensive year. 

• Only once ever has an infielder won the award while making "0" errors (Kevin Youkilis)!

So the common thread in this is pretty simple actually.  Much like the gun that Charlton Heston's gun, a Gold Glove award needs to be pried from the incumbents "cold, dead hands".  Let's look at the above in reverse order.  Youkilis, who I can't stand, has long been recognized as an elite infielder.  However he rarely plays enough a single position to get a sniff at a Gold Glove.  In 2006 he "could" have won a Gold Glove but Mark Teixeira won the year before and retained the title.  To win it away from him, Youkilis had to post an unbelievable 1.000 fielding percentage.  Teixeira was a questionable winner again this year, but again he was the defending champ and no one had a definitive "Youkilis" type year.

Jim Kaat won 16 Gold Gloves in a row.  Right in the middle of that run was an absolutely disaster season with 8 errors.  A fielding percentage in the low .800's?  Yikes.  You would think that there would have been about 250 pitchers in the majors with better defensive records, but again - the defending champ needs to be dethroned.  Its tough for pitcher to stand out defensively.  It wasn't until Jim Palmer finally won and then won four in a row that Kaat was kicked to the curb.  In the 54 years of Gold Glove awards online two American League pitchers have ever won the award withough winning again.  Every other winner has been a multiple winner. 

Thruman Munson won the Gold Glove in 1972.   Hitting the 20 error mark in 1973 had no bearing because no one WON it from him.  The reputation was still there with 23 errors in 1974.  Again, no one took it.  As you likely know a plane crash felled Munson and Jim Sunberg would win the next SIX Gold Gloves. 

Kenny freakin' Lofton (not Powers).  He was the bomb defensively and he won a ton of Gold Gloves in the outfield. So of course when he had the one down year of his career defensively he was rewarded with a Gold Glove!!!!  Wow, its like being on Oprah! (the show). 

Dwight Evans is the exact same story as Kenny Lofton.  He had one year where he turned into George Bell but it had no impact on his ability to collect post season hardware. 

And you have Maury Wills.  36 errors.  The most ever for a GG winner (duh).  But you know what Maury had going or him?  He had won the year before. 

If you need more evidence on the power of reputation...look no further than Rafael Palmeiro.  This is my favourite by far.  Palmeiro (he of the finger waving) won a GG in 1997 and 1998 while with Baltimore.  Those years he had 10 & 9 errors at 1st base.  That's exceptionally high to winning a Gold Glove with, but so be it.  The next year (now with Texas), he plays 28 games at 1st base, 135 at DH and wins the Gold Glove!  So not only is it hard to take away from a player that has it, but people (players and managers) are quite obviously voting by 'gut' or 'feel' and not with any statistical data at all. 

So if you want to know how Jeter got another trophy, my guess would be that the managers and players used no relevant statistical rankings, relied primarily on perception and gave far more than due credit to incumbents. 

But that's me. 

Jays New Coaching Staff

First Off

I haven't decided if this will last beyond a first little something to write about...but here we go.  Also, this is my opinion only and counts for little more than simply being my opinion.  Its not about being right.  Hell, I already know I'm 'right', I hardly need affirmation. 

Kidding. 

Mostly.

New Coaching Staff

The incumbents, Dwayne Murphy (hitting coach), Bruce Walton (pitching coach) and Brian Butterfield (fielding & 3rd base coach) are all back.

Murphy is interesting. I'm surprised they kept him. I personally like him, but with Lind, Hill and Snider having bad to mediocre years coupled with the club's reliance on those players as they try to improve - I'm just a bit surprised.  Let's face it, hitting coach roles are what you give your buddy who bought you dinner when you were starving in "A" ball.  If memory serves, Cito was first hired by Bobby Cox more as a favour.  I think there is a lot of that and some succeed and others go away.  Murphy was a .246 hitter in his career.  That DOES NOT mean that he can't coach.  But it DOES mean he couldn't hit.  He was a brilliant outfielder with Oakland winning 6 gold gloves.  I think he has a role, just probably not hitting coach.  I think there was an opportunity to upgrade here, maybe go after someone who's retired in the last few years?  I'm just throwing it out there, but what about Robbie Alomar?  What about Harold Baines?  What about Tim Raines?  What about Tony "flipping" Fernandez????  GRADE:  C-

Walton is a great call. This guy was the Blue Jays bullpen coach from 2002 through to the end of 2009 when he took the pitching coach duties vacated by Brad Arnsberg.  In one year he was able to mold the likes of Brett Cecil, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Rickey Romero and Marc Rzepczynski into a competent and at times feared starting staff.  His impact in 2010 can not possibly be overvalued.  Think what you will of Cito Gaston but most agree that his strength was NOT managing a pitching staff.  Walton was close to brilliant.  With Kyle Drabek on the way, David Purcey (hopefully) transitioning to the closer role and Jessey Litsch (hopefully) coming back, Walton's role will be that much more elevated.  What is great news for Walton is that his new Manager has been a successful major league pitching coach for the passed 4 years in Boston.  There is a real opportunity for mentoring here for Walton.  Plus a chance for him to raise himself and his staff to the next level!   GRADE:  A

Butterfield is another surprise for me.  Not that he doesn't deserve the job but that he was retained.  There were a lot of reasons not to keep him.  One reason is that he has been with the club since 2004.  By my count, this is his fourth manager in Toronto.  That alone is unusual.  Secondly, he was a candidate for the 'big job' as manager.  Most people who don't get the big gig bail.  He seems to be really well regarded in the business and I don't think landing another job would be a problem.  I'm surprised he didn't bolt.  Finally, and I'll admit that this is a stretch, but I have a feeling that Butterfield was in the middle of the player 'revolt' at the end of the 2009 season.  I'm not insinuating that he initiated it, but it seems to me that his communication with the players would have provided an opportunity to get in front of this and stop an embarrassing situation from happening.  Speculation on my part and we'll never know for sure if he could have (or did) do anything preventative.  Butterfield is a second generation baseball man and has ties to the Yankees and D-Backs.  Skills aside, his noted rapport with the players makes him a great hire. GRADE: B+
 
The new hires are Pat Hentgen (bullpen coach), Torey Lovullo (1st base coach) and Don Wakamatsu (bench coach).

Pat Hentgen has manager written all over him. My prediction is a year or two in the bullpen, then a year in triple A and he'll be in the show either managing or being a bench coach waiting for the phone to ring.  Anytime I've heard him speak he comes across with a strange combination of calm and passion.  He loves the game like few do.  Usually, even the ones who appreciate it; don't really get it.  He is appreciative, he understands and he communicates that without an ounce of bravado or arrogance.  He's like the opposite of Roger Clemens.  This is not a critical role, but it is a critical hire.  GRADE:  A

Torey Lovullo is a shock. He was Boston's triple A manager last year. The Red Sox have lost their pitching coach and triple A manager to the Jays. That's kinda like outbidding the Yankees for a 16 year old Cuban short stop.  Lovullo is highly regarded as a managing prospect.  This guy only retired after the 2000 season and is known to have interviewed for the Dodgers job in 2006.  Ultimately some guy named Torre was hired.  He was short listed for the Pittsburgh job and is probably thankful at this point that he "lost".  I find it interesting that Farrell, who has not managed a game at any level, has surrounded himself with guys who have successfully managed in the minors and/or are considered managerial prospects.  GRADE:  B+

I love the Wakamatsu hire!  After retiring as a career minor leaguer (18 games in The Show) in 1996, he worked as a minor league coach and manager from 1997 to 2002.  From 2003 to 2006 he was the Texas Rangers bench coach.  Now that's a ride, 1985 - 2002 on minor league money and then flying first class.  Wow.  In 2007 he coached 3rd for Texas, 2008 he was Oakland's bench coach and then in 2009 he took over as manager of the Seattle Mariners.  He was invited as one of the American League coaches for the all-star game in his 1st season.  The Mariners record improved by 24 games under his leadership.  Don't go thinking that Seattle (owned by Nintendo) wanted an Asian face leading the club.  Look at the work this guy has put in.  His dues have been paid IN-FULL!.   In August of this year, in Wakamatsu's second season, he was fired.  He'll be back. He's young, hard working and a great communicator. This hire actually gives me a lot of faith in Farrell because he's not afraid to have a strong leader beside him. The only shame is that he may not make it to spring training because they told him that could interview for any ML managers job. He deserves a better team after Seattle.  Here's an interesting tidbit, he co-managed a minor league team in 1997 with Brian Butterfield.  The guy they replace?  Dwayne Murphy.  GRADE:  A+

And the manager.  John Farrell.  I didn't have a strong opinion at first.  But to be honest, I wasn't thrilled.  On the plus side were that he is under 50.  While ageism isn't a huge issue, I think a guy in his 40's has a marginally better chance of dealing with kids in their 20's than does a 60+ year old.  Just my view.  Also a plus, I love that he came from Boston.  You may have noticed that Boston has been pretty successful for a while.  There is a reason for that.  Yes, they have good players, but they also have good management philosophies and those are portable between organizations.  Also, I have a feeling that GM Alex Anthopoulos already espouses many of those philosophies, so the transition shouldn't be too overwhelming.  Now the negative, and for me its a big one.  Farrell has never managed a game at any level.  The last guy we had in that boat was Buck Martinez.  Anyone remember how that worked out?  Initially I would have rated this a "C" with a 'wait and see' attitude.  However, with all the hires and the overall quality of those hires, I think I'll come off the "C".  Particularly in light of hiring people to (seemingly) compensate for that one weakness mentioned previously.  GRADE:  B  (but I'm keeping the 'wait' and see attitude)