2011 Review

When the Leaves win a Stanley Cup, I promise to feign interest.  Until then, I’ll stick to baseball and respect hockey for what it really is:  the Baseball Off Season. 

Let’s start this off by looking back at last year’s pitching predictions and pulling out some highlights shall we?  If anyone wants a refresher of thinks I might be slanting thing, you can check it out HERE. 

So, I had a few good lines in my predictions for the 2011 pitching staff.  My favourite may have been, “there is neither enough lightening nor bottles to make this work”.  Quoting myself as I soar to new heights!

Here is the run down:

Rickey Romero

My Prediction:  15-10, ERA; 3.75 K’s;  200, BB; 90, Innings Pitched; 225.

Reality:  15-11, 3.60, K’s 178; BB’s 80; IP 225.

IN HINDSIGHT:  Are you friggin’ kidding me????  NAILED IT BABY!  NAILED IT!!!

Brett Cecil

My Prediction:  17-7 ERA; 3.90 K’s;  150, BB; 70, Innings Pitched; 225

Reality:  4-11, 4.73, K’s 87; BB’s 52; IP 123.2.

IN HINDSIGHT:  Pretty close on the walks, eh?  Cecil was the ONLY surprise for me this year.  And truth be told, I felt a little guilty predicting everyone to suck so I probably went a little soft on him.  But there was no way I would have predicted this disaster!

Brandon Morrow

My Prediction:   12-6 ERA; 4.00 K’s;  200, BB; 70, Innings Pitched; 225

Reality:  11-11, 4.37, K’s 203; BB’s 69; IP 179.

IN HINDSIGHT:  Last year I wrote, “Welcome to the duplicity that is baseball.  Brandon Morrow, meet A.J. Burnett.”  There will be WAY more on that later and I promise you’ll be shocked!  Sure the win totals are worse than I projected; but everything else is pretty accurate. And considering that EVERYONE thought that I was being unfairly low at the time, I’m counting this as a win. 

Kyle Drabek

My Prediction:   5-11; ERA 5.00; K’s  110; BB 60; Innings Pitched 130.

Reality:  4-5, 6.06, K’s 51; BB’s 55; IP 78.2

IN HINDSIGHT:  Of course my prediction assumed that the whole tragedy would play out for an entire year, which it thankfully didn’t.  But do the math and it would pretty close had they decided to ruin him further. 

There’s no sense looking at the other pitchers because they didn’t start a significant number of games OR were traded.  Now the hitters. 

Travis Snider

My Prediction:  Average .255, HR 22, RBI 75, RUNS 75, SB 3

Reality:  .225, 3 HRs, 30 RBI, 23 RUNS, 9 SBs.

IN HINDSIGHT:  Well.  That was a miss.  He’s been up parts of 4 years now.  Played nearly half the games in 2011 as he did in ’10 or ’09.  I understand people wanting to dismiss him, but the reality is that he’s younger than Drabek who everyone seems to be willing to let ‘grow and develop’.  He may be a AAA player.  He may be Paul Molitor.  Time will tell.   

Rajai Davis

My Prediction: Average .280, HR 4, RBI 30, RUNS 80, SB, 40.

Reality:  .238, 1 HR, 29 RBI, 44 RUNS, 34 SBs

IN HINDSIGHT:  Probably a bigger disappointment than Snider.  The outfield speed and defence was never realized and giving up a free out in the 1^st inning for half the season probably cost Bautista 15 RBIs and the club 5 or 6 wins.  If he’s back, he’ll be the 4^th outfielder at best

Yunel Escobar

My Prediction:  Average .290, HR 10, RBI 55, RUNS 90, SB 5.

Reality:  .290, 11 HRs, 48 RBI, 77 RUNS, 3 SBs.

IN HINDSIGHT:  That was pretty accurate!  Escobar missed 20 games in 2011.  I think he has the potential to be 300 hitter with 10+ HR potential.  A legit control hitter with gap power. 

Edwin Encarnacion

My Prediction:  Average .260, HR 25, RBI 85, RUNS 70, SB 5.

Reality:  .272, 17 HRs, 55 RBI, 70 RUNS, 8 SBs

IN HINDSIGHT:  Reasonably accurate except for the RBIs.  Here’s a stat that I find staggering.  He had 53 extra base hits and they produced only 55 RBI.  Edwin seems to be affected by pressure situations more than anyone.  With men on (any number / any base) he hits .233.  However with 2 out and nobody on, he his .455.  That's just weird.  The other issue with Edwin is that you need to live with his pathetic first half performance.  His OBA was 99 points better in the second half and his BA soared by 36 points. 

John Paul Arencibia (I'm not using his initials, they still make me ill)

My Prediction:  Average .260, HR 15, RBI 45, RUNS 35, SB 0

Reality:  .219, 23 HRs, 78 RBIs, 47 RUNS, 1 SB

IN HINDSIGHT:  I was never 100% sold on Arencibia.  I’m slowly changing my mind.  He’s a good in-game signal caller, not a great positional catcher.  That can be taught though.  You can teach work habits, not smarts.  In 400 minor league ABs he’s a .275 hitter with a .319 OBA.  The boy doesn’t walk.  Not much anyway.  The fact that he took 38 free passes last year is promising.  I think we’ll look back at his .219 average in 5 years as an aberration.  I fully expect him to be in the 250-270 range and the HRs to level out in the high 20’s.  By the way, the 23 bombs he hit in 2012 are a new Blue Jay record for catchers.

Adam Lind

My Prediction:  Average .270, HR 25, RBI 90, RUNS 80, SB 0

Reality:  .251, 26 HRs, 87 RBI, 56 RUNS, 1 SB

IN HINDSIGHT:  Pretty much as expected.  The big problem with Lind 2 years ago was his complete inability to hit left handers.  He made a significant correction in that this past year.  Now the big issue are the prolonged slumps.  In the first half of the year Lind hit .301 with a slugging percentage of .515, 16 HRs and 52 RBI.  In the second half he hit .197 and everything else was pretty awful. 

Jose Bautista

My Prediction:  Average .255, HR 35, RBI 100, RUNS 90, SB 5, All Star

Reality:  .302, 43 HRs, 103 RBIs, 105 RUNs, 9 SBs, All Star.

IN HINDSIGHT:  He delivered.  Almost everyone (Carl Crawford) who signs a huge contract doesn’t deliver.  Full marks. 

Overall, if I was to score my preseason predictions, I'd give myself a B-, a passing grade for sure.  Of course, it really doesn't mean much.  However, it gives us the basis for some 'go forward' trends as we head into 2012.   

Okay...this gets our feet wet.  Next week, Albert Pujols...the man, the myth, the best player in baseball.  Ever?  How does his career project and what can you reasonably anticipate after 5 major league seasons; at least from my point of view. 

Another Wild Card?

I was going to wait until December to start this, but what the hell.  Sometimes I need to RANT!!!!!

Let me start by saying that I'm not a fan of this. 

I wasn't a fan in 1994 when the Wild Card was first adopted.  I wasn't a fan of first and second half winners in 1981.  Had I been more in tune as a three year old I probably wouldn't have supported the move to divisional play in 1969. 

This isn't tim-bit soccer.  Everyone doesn't need a trophy.  Win and move on or lose and go home. 

That being said, lets do a little revisionist history here.  It has long been stated, speculated and or surmised that the Blue Jays would be the biggest beneficiary of an additional Wild Card team.  The theory is that they were always "that" (my finger and thumb are really really really close together) close, but were trapped behind Boston and New York or Tampa and New York in the best division in baseball. 

The Wild Card was added in 1994, but due to the strike and the lost post-season, it wasn't utilized until the following year.  With these newest changes (2012), all division winners (3) and the next 2 best records would qualify for post-season.  Presumably, the two wild card teams would play a one game "play in" to then move onto the division series.  Big deal. 

So how many times in the last 17 years did Toronto have one of the top 5 records int he American League?  Lets look:

YEAR     LEAGUE       DIVISION         GAMES BEHIND
                RANK            RANK                  5th PLACE

1995:       14th (tie)            5th                       22              
1996:       12th                   4th                       11
1997:       11th                   5th                        8
1998:       5th                     3rd                      (-)
1999:       6th                     3rd                       3
2000:       7th                     3rd                       7
2001:       8th                     3rd                       5
2002:       7th                     3rd                      15
2003:       6th (tie)              3rd                       7
2004:       12th                   5th                      21
2005:       8th                     3rd                      13
2006:       7th                     2nd                      3
2007:       7th                     3rd                       5
2008:       7th                     4th                       3
2009:       10th (tie)            4th                      11
2010:       7th                     4th                       4
2011:       7th                     4th                       9

So, hey, not so bad right?  They would have made it once in 1998.  So instead of not having made the post season for 17 consecutive years they only be at a mere 13 consecutive years of ineptitude.  YAY !!!

Rounding off for the sake of ease, the average league finish has been 8th place (out of 14).  The average division finish has been 3.5 place (out of 5) and the average number of games of the 5th place spot has been 8.5

So what will an extra Wild Card due for Toronto.  Not much.

The party date for "mathematical elimination" will be pushed back a couple of weeks.  Will there be meaningful baseball in September for the first time since 1998?  Hmmmm.  If you consider teams struggling around the .500 mark but not yet eliminated to be "meaningful" then, yeah - I guess.

On second thought this might work in Toronto.  This is a town that gets excited with the Leaves playoff drive every spring as they trudge toward 8th spot until they are finally eliminated with a week or two left.  I don't know a lot about math and I know less about hockey, but I think that finishing 8th and in the playoffs still means that you're in the bottom half of the league.

This isn't an indictment of hockey or its playoffs.  People love it and that's fine.  Lets look at last year.  There were 8 teams in hockey with over 100 points.  They were Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, Tampa, Detroit, Vancouver and San Jose.  Is there any doubt that those were the best teams in hockey?  I'm not asking about playoff upsets etc, just simply, "are these the best teams"?  My point is that the NHL has opted for a battle of the attrition, a survival of the fittest to see who wins the Stanley Cup.  Fine its their prerogative.  Grinders who slow the game down in the playoffs are of immense valuable.  Dragging the stars down to the level of the mediocre will win you championships.  Its the way it works.  Again, that's fine.  And I'm not picking on hockey, same is true for basketball.  And its just a commentary actually, not an argument. 

This is what I DON'T want to see happen to baseball.  Starting in 1947 through to 1963, the New York Yankees went to 14 of 16 World Series.  That my friends is a staggering number.  It also is a number that would never have been achieved with 4 rounds of playoffs.  There was only an American League and a National League during those days and if you won the league (the Pennant) then you went to the series.  The best, AND ONLY THE BEST, move on.  The schedule was balanced and there was no mistake.  Just win.

The scale of that Yankee acheivement has already been completely lost, mostly because of the Atlanta success of the 1990's and early 2000's.  The Braves hit the post season 13 consecutive years.  Its a ridiculous number, a monumental achievment, but its nowhere near what New York did.  They had the best record in the National League in 9 of the 13 years.  Still astounding!  But the schedule wasn't balanced.  Atlanta had the weakest team in the NL in their own division in 8 of that 13 years.  Easier schedule, more wins, multiple teams in the post season...its no longer possible to compare.  

The number of American league playoff teams has now grown from one; to two; to four and now five.  I don't think that you can maintain the integrity and purity of the old way (one team) and blend it with the ways of the NBA and NHL.  You can't say, "we're not like them because we have less teams in" because you've already polluted the value of the product.  MORE pollution is definitely not good, but it doesn't negate what you've already done.  It stops being about the "BEST" and becomes about who can last the longest. 

More to the point.  If you want "survival of the fitness", the "epic struggle" that everyone is enamoured with, then why doesn't everyone get in?  The NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB all have the very real possibility of sub .500 teams making the playoffs.  If you are already willing as a league to stand behind that disgusting level of performance and call it a 'playoff' team the just use the regular to seed teams for your tournament.

At least hockey had the good sense to introduce a point for losing game so no one can really tell have far bellow .500 some of the mediocre teams really are.

Unless MLB expands to the playoffs to 8 teams (and I suggest just let 'em all in) the Jays have no reasonable chance to make the playoffs for the foreseeable future.  The numbers bear that out.  

The mirage of finishing 3rd in the division 8 times over the last 17 years has misled people into thinking that the Jays are a 3rd(ish) place team in the American League because that's their lot most often the toughest division in baseball.  That only happened in one out of the 8 years.  ONE.  The other seven third place finishes in the east produced the following league finishes:  2 sixth place finishes, 2 seventh place finishes and 3 eighth place finishes.

Why?  Is it not really the toughest division in baseball?

For sure it is, although every once in a blue moon another division will pop up.  That was the case in 2006 when the Jays were 2nd in their division but 7th in the league.  But overall its true.  The east is hard, and the only reason it is; is because the schedule isn't balanced.

People gloss over this point.  So what, its a few more games with New York, blah, blah, blah....  That's so not true.  The Jays played 18 games against Boston, Tampa and New York last year.  That's 54 games or 33% of their total season.  Take the Texas Rangers.  They have Boston, Tampa and New York seven times each for a total of 21 games or 13% of their schedule.

Five teams last year had a winning record against the American League East.  Three of those teams play in the EAST!!!!  Its friggin' tough alright.  The central is awful.  They are so bad that even Baltimore has a winning record against them.  How would you like to switch spots with Texas and play the Yanks, Sox and Rays 7 times each and the M's, A's and Angels 18 times each?  The Jays suddenly, even under JP would have been a perennial wild card contender. 

A balanced schedule would be the ideal situation.  Play half the teams 11 times, the other half 12 times.  Flip flop it every other year.

I contend that adding a Wild Card is way more significant for Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, Texas, Los Angeles and Oakland than it is for Toronto.  Those teams are up and down year over a year and will be in contention for those two spots on a fairly regular basis.

Toronto still needs to win the division.  To win the division you need to take out Boston, New York and Tampa.  These are the two wealthiest teams and the best run team in baseball.  I'm afraid that I don't see it happening.

Lost in all of this is that the value of the original Wild Card has been diminished.  Previously, winning the Wild Card meant a 5 game series against a division winner.  Now it'll mean a one game play in.  Now, the Wild Card (either one) is merely a over blown coin flip.

The Wild Card change does not fix the problem.  Balancing the schedule would. 

Is that too much to ask?