All Time Blue Jays

News & Notes

• This Saturday will be one of the more fun days of the year as the Jays will be on the radio for the first time.  I don't care what the weather is like, it'll feel like spring. 
• St. Louis had better lock up Pujols soon.  Their best pitcher (Adam Wainwright) is already gone for the year with a wonky elbow.  
• Pencil Mauer in as the MVP. 

Just for a fun change of pace...here’s a look at the list of “all-time” Blue Jays by position as picked by .... ME!!!

So here is the criteria is the criteria to be an all timer for the Jays.

1.       Must have been a Jay for a minimum of 4 years.

2.       Must have had less than 2 years major league experience before coming to the Jays.

This will exclude some major contributors to Blue Jay lore.  Guys like White, Alomar, Carter, Morris, and Clemens wouldn’t be eligible.  This is more about home-grown and nearly home-grown talent.  I doubt there will be much controversy and I’ll try to stay to the new history for Doris.

Off we go then 

Right Handed Pitcher

I figured this would be the toughest call.  It wasn’t.  Stieb and Halladay both had brilliant careers with the Jays, but Halladay is approaching Hall of Fame consideration at this point.  Stieb, being one of the best 2 pitchers of the 80’s was never considered to even be a potential Hall of Famer.  There are a couple of ways to look at ‘typical seasons’, one is the 162 game average.  This discounts injury time and takes your totals as continuous service.  If you were to use this lens to look at the average season throughout Halladay’s career (not forgetting his 1^st three years were 8-7, 4-7, 5-3) it would look like this:  17 Wins; 9 Losses; 3.32 ERA; 33 Starts, 6 Complete Games, 2 Shutouts, 235 innings; 175 strikeouts and 50 walks.  Easy Call.  Roy Halladay

Left Handed Pitcher

With all due respect to David Well’s 8 quality years with the Jays, this one is a landslide.  It is Jimmy Key, all day; every day.  Just as a reference point, Key had 116 wins over 9 season for the Jays, averaging 12.8 per year.  Halladay averaged 12.3 / year while a Jay (wins divided by years, not 162 game avg).  Key was dominant AND a lefty in a time when the Jays were unable to find left handed pitching anywhere.  His 186 career wins has him ranked 145^th all time in career wins and he’s #34 all-time amongst lefties. 

Closer

Tom Henke.  Again, another no doubter.  His 311 career saves have him at #17 all time.  He won the “Rolaids Relief Award”, went to two all star games and most importantly – brought stability to a franchise that was an absolute mess in the bullpen.   

Catcher

There are some to consider here.  You’ve got Buck Martinez and Ernie Whitt.  They were sort of both ½ a great catcher each.  I don’t think you can go wrong with Pat Borders though.  When it comes to making the most out of limited talent, this is your guy.  17 years in The Show and he actually had 200 more games played than hits!  There wasn’t a statistical category that stands out,

First Base

30^th all time in home runs, top 100 all time in total bases, doubles, RBI, walks, extra base hits, sacrifice flies, hit by pitch, intentional walks, assists, put outs, fielding percentage, winner of the Hank Aaron award and the Roberto Clemente award - Carlos Delgado.  This guy should be a legend, instead he’s just another guy screwed by the J.P. Ricciardi propaganda machine.  In his last year with the Jays, 2004, he made a whooping 19,700,000.00.  Its well documented that JP tried to bully Delgado into a trade which he refused to accept.  JP, of course, painted it as Delgado doing a disservice to the organization rather than exercising his collectively bargained right.  At the end of the season JP made one contract offer to the Delgado.  He admitted to not following up.  No phone calls, no emails, no text messages, no nothing.  There were vague accusations of Delgado following the money and pricing himself out of the market.  The truth, which Delgado has never hidden, is that he wanted to stay in Toronto.  Toronto and specifically JP had no interest.  The propaganda machine wants you to believe that Delgado signed a lucrative contract to play in Florida.  Here is the truth.  Carlos signed a 5 year 58 million dollar deal and did not ask for or receive a “no trade” clause.  What is really interesting is the first year of the contract paid him 4 million dollars.  4 freaking million for a fringe hall of famer (at the time) in his prime as a power and RBI threat.  This gave Florida the flexibility to see if they had a winning team for a year and then dumping the contract to a stupid team (say....The Mets) if their team looked weak; thereby not having to pay the expensive parts.  That is creative management.    

Second Base

Domaso Garcia, as I’ve said before, was our first star at 2^nd base.  Tough to strike out, very solid defensively and a great hitter in an era where middle infielders were played to play defence first and hit second.  He would only play four years in Toronto but it started a legacy of excellence at the position.

Short Stop

Tony Fernandez.  There is not discussion. 

Left Field

It’s time to admit two things.  George Bell was, and still is, a whack job.  And he was the best left fielder we’ve ever had.  As an MVP he was the first guy to really make the Jays international.  Three silver sluggers, three all star games and through it all, was referred to as a clown in the outfield.  While I’m not about to defend George’s exploits (he led the league in errors committed in left field 5 times and finished second in the category once) I will say that there are more to the numbers.  George actually hustled in the field.  While he was vacant from time to time, his greatest penalty was that he tried for stuff he shouldn’t have and made good situations bad and bad situations worse.  However, he was pretty athletic, just not as athletic as HE though.  This might come as a bid of surprise, but Bell led the league in assists from left field in ’85, ’86 and 87’ and finished fourth in ’88 and ’91.  He wasn’t THAT bad in the field.      

Center Field

This comes down to Vernon Wells and Lloyd Moseby.  As a Jay, here are the critical stats:  Batting average; Moseby 26^th, Wells 12^th.  Home runs; Moseby 6^th, Wells 2^nd.  RBI; Moseby 5^th, Wells 2^nd.  Runs; Moseby 3^nd, Wells 2^rd.  Hits; Moseby 4^th, Wells 2^nd.  Doubles; Moseby 4^th, Wells 2^nd.  Triples;  Moseby 2^nd, Wells, 10^th.  Extra base hits; Moseby 4^th, Wells 2^nd.  Stolen bases; Moseby 1^st, Wells 10^th.  Most times grounded into double plays; Moseby 6^th, Wells 1^st.   Wells played one more game as a Jay (1393) than did Moseby.  Grudgingly  Wells.    

Right Field

Jesse Barfield.  A lot of people love Jesse Barfield.  Not me so much.  The only thing that separated Barfield from Rob Deer or Pete Incaviglia was that he could play defence.  There were a lot of power hitting outfielders in the 70’s and 80’s who couldn’t hit a lick outside of the long ball.  Barfield was one of those; maybe a little better, but not much.  He won two Gold Gloves, but should have won more.  I think he had to wrestle the first one away from Dwight Evans in Boston.  He played in one all star game, won a silver slugger and led right fielders in assists 6 times.  He’s 6^th all time in career outfield assists. 

Designated Hitter

Well I guess it has be Adam Lind even though there isn’t much of a body of work yet. 

The Starters

NEWS & NOTES:

Let's keep this brief before you all rip apart this week's BLOG. 

• Another reason to dig AA.  He got the Bautista deal done before the BLOG deadline to go to (virtual) print!
• So, Bautista signs (unofficially) for 65 million over 5 years.  Here is what I have to say:  It ain't my money, if they think that's what he's worth - GREAT!  However, don't ever cry poor.  I'm completely okay with this deal.
• What CBS Sports had to say: "Anthopoulous has proven deserving of some rope after the brilliant moves he's made so far as GM. Clearly, AA believes Bautista's transformation is for real. If it is, Anthopoulous did a brilliant job of locking up Bautista before his price went up further and hitting free agency, which would only complicate matters."
• How do you not LOVE Albert Pujols as a ball player?  In 10 seasons he's averaged 156 games, 43 doubles, 41 homers, 123 RBI, 119 runs, 8 steals, 95 walks, .331 avg, .426 oba, 24 Intentional walks, etc, etc, etc. Anyone would take these numbers as the best year of their career; let alone the average of their average over 10 years.  If I were the owner of the Cardinals, I think I would open contract negotiations but saying, "howdy partner".  Back up the brinks truck.
• The Jays signed Scott Podsednik to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.  He was second to Dontrelle Willis (remember him?) in rookie of the year voting in 2001 and was an all star in 2005.  A .279 career hitter with single digit home run power but has had 30 or more steals six times.  Look for him to make the club as the John MacDonald of the outfield.  Expect late inning pinch running and more stolen bases this year.  
• The Jays had 26 games lost by relievers last year.   

Marcum was better than you may have thought

I’ve had a whole week to do this and I can’t find a silver lining to save me life.  I know...I’m usually the optimist when it comes to baseball and particularly the Jays.  But so help me...

It’s the scary part.  The starting pitching.

Again, I know, I know, everyone is really high on the potential of the Jays pitching because there is a surplus of great young starters.  Well, ask Jesse Litsch or Dustin McGowan how many wins potential gets you?  The part about the starters being great is way too premature.  The part about them being young is way too accurate.

Much as I did with the hitters, I’m going to go through the starters with a prediction of what to reasonably expect and a high end if things go really well.  Many of you won’t like it.  God I hope I’m wrong.   

Just a word on the starters as a whole.  After Romero (28 wins),  Cecil (22 wins) and Morrow (18 wins), who the hell else is starting?  My ‘guess’ would be two of McGowan (20 wins) Rzepczynski (9 wins), Scott Richmond (9 wins), David Purcey (5 wins), Brad Mills (1 win) and Kyle Drabek (0 Wins).  Just to clarify, the win totals quoted are career wins...not single season.  My personal opinion is that there is neither enough lightening nor bottles to make this work.

Maybe I’m not being clear enough.  I think this staff is a train wreck.  Oh....My....God.  The Birds nine potential starters have 112 career wins.  C.C. Sabathia has 157.  Tim Wakefield has 197.  John Lackey has 116. Josh Beckett has 112. Javier Vasquez has 152.  Kevin Millwood has 159.  Those are pitchers IN THEIR OWN DIVISION that have more wins than the Jays entire ‘nine-man rotation.’ 

I’m not saying the season is over before it starts.  Hell, I’m sure bookies took bets on the Christians occasionally in Rome.  But you know what?  Even though the Christians were super motivated, backs against the wall, playing like there was no-tomorrow, playing for the lives...blah...blah...blah; the lions had a certain ‘hunger’ that comes with experience that is difficult to overcome. 

This is the bizarro Phillies rotation.  If there was one 35 year old .500 pitcher who knew how to work out of jams and keep base runners close, I’d feel better.  Not win the division better; but better nonetheless. 

Did I mention that only one Jay pitched 200 innings last year?  That was Romero with 210.  Did I mention that only 2 starters managed to get in 30 games last year?  One was Romero and the other is now in Milwaukee.  Did you know that Shaun Marcum (Milwaukee) had the highest percentage of quality starts on the team last year?  Did you know that the Jays were below the league average in innings pitched per start? Did you know that Brandon Morrow pitched (statistically) the 4^th best game EVER in the history of baseball on August 8^th last year?  Did you know that he also has a losing record for his career and has never had a start in his career in which he didn’t give up at least one walk.  Did you know that Achilles was actually a pitcher for the Jays?

Oh, by the way...these predictions assume 35 starts which ain’t gonna happen either. 

Let’s get at it:

Ricky Romero

I think he’s good.  He was 13-9 two years ago and was 14-9 last year.  He is among the best fielding pitchers in baseball...probably in the top three in that category.  But that’s kind of like being a great running catcher; who cares.  There is nothing to be down on with Romero.  If he was the second man in the rotation for the Yankees or Boston, I could see him winning 18.  But he’s not.  He’s Toronto’s number one starter, which means he’ll see everyone elses number one pitcher pretty consistently. I don’t think he’ll take a step back this year, but his numbers will because his team will have a hard time scoring against the league’s elite pitchers. Lions 1, Christians 0.

PREDICTION:  Record; 13-11, ERA; 3.99 K’s;  175, BB; 100, Innings Pitched; 200   

TOP:  Record; 15-10, ERA; 3.75 K’s;  200, BB; 90, Innings Pitched; 225.

Brett Cecil

I’m stretching folks.  Cecil has won 17 of his last 25 decisions.  This is rough.  That is actually a really cool stat if your Greg Maddux, but when your major league legacy is 33 career starts; it’s not a trend, it just a number.  A good number, but nothing more.  Of all the Jays starters I think I have more faith and hope with him.  There is a little bit of Jimmy Key in this guy.  He doesn’t seem to rattle.  That’s good.  He strikes out twice as many as he walks.  He has some mojo and wins in bunches.  Lions 1, Christians 1. 

PREDICTION:  Record; 16-8, ERA; 4.25 K’s;  125, BB; 60, Innings Pitched; 200.  

TOP:  Record; 17-7 ERA; 3.90 K’s;  150, BB; 70, Innings Pitched; 225.

Brandon Morrow

Welcome to the duplicity that is baseball.  Brandon Morrow, meet A.J. Burnett.  Or maybe Todd Stottlemyre.  Yes that seems a little harsh, but that’s what I see.  Again, I’d like nothing more than to be wrong.  The reality, is that this guy has the most potential of any pitcher on the team.  The truth is that potential is almost never realized and even if this guy does get to be good, people will likely be disappointed that he’s not great.   There is a long list of million dollar arms and five cent heads.  I’m not saying he’s a problem child, just that its highly unlikely that this team will develop 3 or more number one starters and my money is on Morrow being a 3-4 guy which puts him averaging out around 12 wins when he hits his stride.   Lions 2, Christians 1.

PREDICTION:  Record 9-7; ERA 4.25; K’s 180; BB 80; Innings Pitched 200.  

TOP:  Record; 12-6 ERA; 4.00 K’s;  200, BB; 70, Innings Pitched; 225.

Dustin McGowan

I love comebacks.  However, can everyone stop talking like we’re waiting for Nolan Ryan to come off the Disabled list?  Dustin, god love him, has a 20-22 career record with a 4.71 career ERA.  Less than half of his career starts (27 of his 56 starts) were quality which is defined as working 6 or more innings and yielding 3 or fewer runs.  For the record, if you give up 3 runs and work 6 innings every single game you have a 4.50 ERA, how exactly is that ‘quality’ anyway?  Anyway, if by some quirky miracle he comes back healthy, Dustin McGowan will not be your second coming.  Unless of course you were waiting for the second coming of a terribly average and highly injury prone pitcher.     Lions 3, Christians 1.

PREDICTION:  Record 5-6; ERA 4.75; K’s 150; BB 65; Innings Pitched 150.  

TOP:  Record 10-10; ERA 4.25; K’s  175; BB 80; Innings Pitched 180.

Marc Rzepczynski

Wow.  Career 9-11 record with a 4.32 ERA.   7-5 at triple A with a 5.29 ERA, 7-5 at double A with a nice 2.93 ERA.  There is nothing statistically that would indicate he's on the verge of "lighting it up".  Lions 4, Christians 1.

PREDICTION:  Record 6-8; ERA 4.32; K’s 70; BB 35; Innings Pitched 100.  

TOP:  Record 9-11; ERA 4.00; K’s  100; BB 50; Innings Pitched 150.

Scott Richmond

Maybe I cheer a little harder for him because he’s Canadian.  Believe it or not, I think this team needs more Scott Richmond type pitchers.  A little older, a little wiser.  Sadly though, no better.  9-11 with a 5.27 ERA for his career.   Lions 5, Christians 1.

PREDICTION:  Record 9-11; ERA 5.27; K’s 139; BB 55; Innings Pitched 138.  

TOP:  Record 10-11; ERA 5.26; K’s  140; BB 56; Innings Pitched 139.

David Purcey

I had Purcey tabbed to be the closer this year.  So much for that, the Jays chose four other guys for that role!  What was I thinking????  Oh yeah, this is what I was thinking.  In 33 games as a reliever in The Show he’s 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA giving up 26 hits in 34 innings.  Not Mariano Rivera, but pretty good.  In 21 Major League starts he is 4-9 with a 5.74 ERA and allowing 121 hits in 113 innings.  Is it me?  This guy ain’t a starter; at least not yet.  Lions 6, Christians 1.

PREDICTION:  Record 4-9; ERA 5.70; K’s 120; BB 85; Innings Pitched 120.  

TOP:  Record 5-11; ERA 5.50; K’s  140; BB 85; Innings Pitched 140.

Brad Mills

1-1 with a career 7.80 ERA.  10-14 at triple A with a 4.78 ERA.  Done. Lions 7, Christians 1.

PREDICTION:  Record 1-1; ERA 7.80; K’s 10; BB 10; Innings Pitched 22.  

TOP:  Record 2-2; ERA 7.00; K’s 20; BB 20; Innings Pitched 44.

Kyle Drabek

Right.  PLEASE don’t wreck this kid by starting until the rotation has stabilized!  That won’t happen, but if it does all there is to go on is a career 0-3 record with a 4.76 ERA.  His most recent two years in the minors had promising records of 14-9 and 12-3, and ERAs of 2.94 and 3.19.  That’s great for minor ball.  Its actually great at any level of ball.  He’s worked over 400 minor league innings but hasn’t thrown a single pitch at triple A.  My gut (which is ample) says he’s going to be good, but not ready for prime time.

 

PREDICTION:  Record 4-9; ERA 5.27; K’s 110; BB 60; Innings Pitched 125.  

TOP:  Record 5-11; ERA 5.00; K’s  110; BB 60; Innings Pitched 130.

In the ‘good old days’ when the Jays pitching staff was filled with any three names like Stieb, Clancy, Leal, Alexander, Key, Stewart, Stottlemyre, Wells, Morris, Cone, Flanagan, Viola, Guzman, Halladay, Marcum, Hentgen, Loiza, Carpenter or Clemens.... it would obviously be a much different story.  In that case we’d be debating which of McGowan, Rzepczynski, Scott Richmond, David Purcey, Brad Mills, or Kyle Drabek would be stepping in as the 4^th or 5^th man in a mature rotation.

I'd much rather be having that discussion. 

The Hitters

News and Notes

Before I get to this weeks spectacular BLOG, I just wanted to hit on a few quick items. 
1.  Reports are out that the Jays are trying to unload Juan Rivera (link).  I don't buy it.  The Jays do not need to get cheaper at this point.  They've recovered Vernon's offence and defence, granted it took two people to do it, but a trade of Rivera would really surprise me.  Besides the 'source' is Ken Rosenthal who is wrong about half the time.  I like his analysis generally, but this seems off the mark.  If I'm wrong, well....its in print.
2.  Woodie Fryman died this week.  Woodie had a long but not particularly spectacular major league career.  He was 140-150ish in his career.  But Woodie flirted with greatness.  Leading the AL in ERA in 1972 with the Tigers.  As a rookie with Pittsburgh, he gave up a leadoff single, picked off the guy trying to steal and then set down the next 26 in order.  He was that kind of guy, but always seemed to be on the wrong team at the wrong time.  By the way, I'm not to fond of players I grew up watching dying of natural causes. 
3.  Albert Pujols; Babe Ruth - Discuss.
4.  This will be Chipper Jones' 18th year of Major League Baseball.  It will be his first without Bobby Cox as his manager.
5.  There are rumours that the Jays are either going to strike a deal or wait for waivers on Justin Ruggiano a career minor leaguer from Tampa.  Don't get excited.  Does anyone remember Turner Ward?  Fans clamouring for him to play everyday because of his "heart" and "hustle" and the Jays FINALLY put him on unrecallable waivers and he was picked up by Milwaulkee.  In his parts of 12 seasons he would hit .251 with 39 career homeruns and 33 career stolen bases.  He scored 50 runs once, he never had 50 RBI.  Ruggiano is Turner Ward and is not an upgrade from Rivera, Snider or Davis.  In fact, I'd take Scott Peters.
6.  The statue of Cubs legendary broadcaster, Harry Caray, was vandalized (link).  Apprently someone wrote, "thle Cubbieth thstink". 
7.  Jose Bautista's agents name is Bean Stringfellow.  Swear to God!  (link)
8.  Lastly, here is why I have unlimited respect for double AA.  When Alex Anthopolous was asked why Gaston kept playing John Buck last September and left Arencibia on seemingly rot on the bench, he had this to say, "When John Buck was signed to a one-year deal, the promise was made to him that he was going to be an everyday player from start to finish," Anthopoulos said. "When we were competing to sign him, there were a few other teams that wanted to sign him. That was really what separated us from some of the other teams. When we give our word to someone ... that's part of our brand," Anthopoulos said. "When I'm negotiating with an agent or I'm trying to recruit a player, and we have to tell them something, whether it's good or bad news, they know that we're going to honor our word and we're going to be straight shooters.  People in the game are starting to realize that the way the Toronto Blue Jays operate, they're men of their word and they keep to their commitment."

BLOG Time!

Jays open the 2011 season in Baltimore's Camden Yards

Opening day.  I can’t wait!

There’s nothing like being tied for first place with only positive expectations and optimism as far as you can see.  Sometimes the optimism lasts for six months.  Sometimes its six weeks.  Sometimes 6 days.  Sometimes its less than six hours when a Mike Timlin fastball gets rocked out of the park in extra innings.  The great thing about baseball is that you never really know. 

So, as the pitchers and catchers begin to trickle in to spring training, let us turn our thoughts toward expectations.  what are ‘reasonable’ expectations for the Jays this year?  Further, what are the potential bright lights that could have career years?  I’ve put together what I think is 'fair' to expect in the PREDICTION line and what 'could' happen if everything were to go right for the player on the TOP line. 

Keep in mind that the experts at CBSsports, who I think are generally pretty good, have graded the Blue Jays off season maneuvers as an A-minus.  Nice.  They also predict that the Jays are likely to come in somewhere in the neighbourhood of 81-85 wins, with an eye to breaking the 90 win barrier in 2012.  Now that would be really nice!

How many more weeks of winter did the damned gopher predict?

Punxsutawney Phil & Rod Sell (not Brian Dennehy)

Just a little on how I arrived at these numbers.  For the reasonable expectations, I tried to look at a combination of the 162 game average and seasonal average.  162 game averages are always better than seasonal averages; however, players not named Ripken or Gehrig can't be guaranteed to play every day, so I would lean a little more to the seasonal average.  For players with less than 5 years in The Show, I looked for trends in their minor league numbers.  For example, a player with 40+ doubles but less than 10 homers in the minors over multiple years, is likely to still be growing into his power.  Hitting gaps with authority but not quite clearing walls.  You can make some power assumptions based on that.  There are other more boring trends which I'll save for when it gets colder again. 

I also tried to determine whether a player had already had his career year or not.   We generally think of players building on previous years, but realistically - does anyone expect Bautista to hit 75 bombs this year?  Your career year still counts, but needs to be rationalized. 

The "if everything goes perfect" component counts on the player attaining the numbers in the first prediction plus being aided by the players around him.  For example, Ichiro has had 225 and 214 hits leading off for Seattle over the last two years.  He was easily (subjective, I guess) the best lead off hitter in the game, yet he hasn't even scored 90 runs in either of the last two years.  If any of the 2, 3 or 4 hitters have a good season he scores 100 easy.  If two of them have good years he has 120.  So this isn't only about the individuals capabilities, its influenced by those around him too.   

This week’s view is of the starting line up (as I see it) and next week’s will be of the pitchers. 

Left Field – Travis Snider

Travis is a tough one to project because he hasn’t played a full season yet.  Also, his time in the The Show is not really representative of how his numbers look in the minors.  In the minors his on base average is .376 in the majors he’s .318.  Its a little odd that his power numbers have shown up with the big club but not his average or plate discipline.  Playing every day will help.  I did like Cito Gaston, but I think Snider will benefit most from the Managerial change.  Getting 500+ at bats will really help with plate coverage and pitch recognition.   

PREDICTION:  Average .255, HR 22, RBI 75, RUNS 75, SB 3. 

TOP:  Average .280, HR 30, RBI, 85, RUNS 85, SB 10.

Center Field – Rajai Davis

Does anyone remember Mike Cameron?  He replaced Ken Griffey Jr in CF for Seattle.  He was no Ken Griffey.  But he did end up making them forget about Griffey’s defensive contributions which were not insignificant.   I believe the same will be true for Davis in CF for the Jays.  People want to believe that Wells was a superior defensive talent.  They’ll find out this year.  Offensively he's not Wells.  But he's not an Otis Nixon slap hitter either.  His career batting average and on base percentage are both .001 higher than Wells'; but he brings virtually no power.  He's a completely different player and in this case, different is definitely good!  Also, he wears high socks.  I dig high socks.  Players who have their pants to their heels (Wells', ManRam, etc) look lazy.  Jim Thome doesn't look lazy even though he's slower and and not as good.  Davis won't look lazy & he's good.  People might fall in love with him like they did with Mookie.      

PREDICTION:  Average .280, HR 4, RBI 30, RUNS 80, SB, 40. 

TOP:  Average .280, HR 4, RBI, 40, RUNS 110, SB 60.

Right Field – Juan Rivera

So he’s no Rajai Davis defensively.  But he’s no George Bell either.  Rivera is steady if unspectacular on defence.  However, he will almost entirely replace Wells from an offensive stand point, with the only exception being speed.  I know people have trouble believing that, but their numbers are virtually identical.  On the speed question, I remain unconvinced that Wells’ speed had ever really been utilized to its potential.  This outfield feels very 'mid-eightys' to me.  Speedy center fielder with limited power and bombers on the corners with more limited defense.        

PREDICTION:  Average .280, HR 22, RBI 85, RUNS 65, SB 2. 

TOP:  Average .280, HR 30, RBI, 100, RUNS 75, SB 2.

Third Base – Jose Bautista

16, 14, 23 and 21 errors at 3^rd base over the last four seasons for Encarnacion.  That's a total of 74 if you're scoring at home.  People sitting on the first base line can be a little less worried when there are ground balls to third this year.  The defensive upgrade will be palpable.  If you are one of those people that thought that Bautista had a great year last year, but don’t know how significant it was to the team overall, consider this:  When Jose played 3^rd base he was .281 hitter compared to a .250 hitter when playing the outfield.  In the Jays 85 wins he hit .303 with 37 home runs.  In their 77 loses he was .212 with 17 home runs.  As goes Jose, so go the Blue Jays.  He’ll be hitting cleanup all year and playing 3^rd, both changes benefit him.          

PREDICTION:  Average .255, HR 35, RBI 100, RUNS 90, SB 5, All Star

TOP:  Average .270, HR 54, RBI, 124, RUNS 109, SB 10, All Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, MVP, Pope, Head of the TTC.

Short Stop – Yunel Escobar

I think this kid is ridiculously good.  There could be the “million dollar arm and 5 cent head” factor here, but I doubt it’s a serious issue.  The Jays as an organization typically don't languish with that character flaw for too long (eg. Raul Mondesi).  The worst thing that I could find about Escobar is  that he grounds into too many double plays.  Otherwise he’s real good offensively and real good defensively.  That’s kind of the package, right?  CBSSports ranks him as the 9th best short stop out of the 30 teams.            

PREDICTION:  Average .290, HR 10, RBI 55, RUNS 90, SB 5. 

TOP:  Average .310, HR 10, RBI, 70, RUNS 100, SB 10, All Star

Second Base – Aaron Hill

In 2009 Aaron Hill led the league in plate appearances and at bats.  He finished just behind A-Rod and Ichiro in MVP voting.  He was an All Star and won a Silver Slugger.  He headed into spring training last year aiming to improve.  In 48 spring at bats he hit .417 with an OBA of .517.  He had 11 walks and only 5 strikeouts.  He also had 6 home runs in 18 spring games to go with his gaudy average.  Then he got hurt on opening day and missed about two weeks.  He never really got his rhythm back.  But I do believe that he will find his groove this spring and be back to his ‘normal’ self.   CBSSports has Hill ranked 9th among the 30 starting second basemen, and that's after last years disappointing season.  Better than average offense.  At least average and probably above average and reliable defense. 

PREDICTION:  Average .285, HR 20, RBI 80, RUNS 90, SB 5. 

TOP:  Average .310, HR 30, RBI, 110, RUNS 115, SB 11, All Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, Come back Player of the Year

First Base – Edwin Encarnacion

I’m really just hoping that he catches better than he throws.  Alex Anthopolous has hinted pretty strongly at optimistic expectations of Edwin having a breakthrough year, this season.  If he plays 1^st all season, doesn’t hurt the club defensively and gets into 150 or so games, I can see the rationale for a good year.  This is a straight statistical dump, so don’t think that my prediction is being bolstered by any Alex man-crush thingy.  He still scares me.                

PREDICTION:  Average .260, HR 25, RBI 85, RUNS 70, SB 5. 

TOP:  Average .290, HR 30, RBI, 95, RUNS 80, SB 5

Catcher – John Paul Arencibia

Really?  Who the hell knows.  By the way, I’m done with J.P.’s; from now on he’s John Paul Arencibia.  It’s impossible to make a prediction based on his brief time with the Jays so I’m going to try and reasonably extrapolate based on his minor league numbers.  This will assume that he gets into about a hundred games or so.  The acquisition and immediate trading of Napoli has to make him feel pretty integral to the club's plans.  Within two years he will likely be the backup or traded for another value position as Travis D'Arnaud won't be kept down for much longer than that.  The better he plays, the better the package if they end up moving him.                  

PREDICTION:  Average .260, HR 15, RBI 45, RUNS 35, SB 0. 

TOP:  Average .275, HR 20, RBI, 60, RUNS 45, SB 1

Designated Hitter – Adam Lind

I expect that Lind and Encarnacion will go back and forth between first and DH.  Lind bounced back a little better than Hill did after an horrific start.  He still really hurt his career average but weirdly his other numbers weren’t that far off of his career stats.   CBSSports ranks Lind as the 4th best DH out of the 14 American League clubs.  Lind has always reminded me a little of Olerud in that he has a beautiful swing, is remarkably consistent and never seems to get excited.  However he does have a pulse which makes him a little more excitable than Olerud.  His ability to stay level is likely a factor in his rebound last year and the opposite is probably why Hill languished for so long.                  

PREDICTION:  Average .270, HR 25, RBI 90, RUNS 80, SB 0. 

TOP:  Average .310, HR 35, RBI, 115, RUNS 95, SB 1, All Star, Silver Slugger. 

Now, I've tried to be realistic with these predictions, but there are plenty of other things to consider.  One of the major 'other things' is the fact that Davis, Rivera, Escobar and Arencibia, were not on the team last year.  Additionally, Snider, Bautista, Encarnacion and Lind will be playing different positions.  The only person who remains unchanged from last year in that he's on the same team in the same position, is Aaron Hill and it was Hill who is coming of the worst season of everyone. 

Nothing is a lock.  The Jays had a very good offensive team last year, leading the league in homeruns and finishing 6th in total runs.  You would think that losing Buck (20HR), Wells (31HR), Overbay (20HR) and Alex Gonzalez (17HR in 85 games) would clobber a team.  You would think that losing 34% of your teams power would be devastating.  However, if Rivera, Escobar and Snider play to potential (not above), if Encarnacion breaks out (like Alex said he would) and if Hill and Lind return to form (or close) - the offensive dip, if there is one, will be negligible.